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Title: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 03, 2012, 02:36:54 PM Can someone compile a list of election dates in a Datetime array? Want to see how much movement there is typically the trading day after for a play on straddles Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: wd1040 on November 03, 2012, 03:27:14 PM Don't know how to do Datetime array, but here's the list in xls with the day, month and year separated.
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 03, 2012, 06:47:32 PM Not enough data to work with I think, but just drawing from the last 20 years (5 elections), it seems like there's not much correlation leading into the election. However, for holding through the election results, if a newcomer is elected, market sells off. Meanwhile we rally if the incumbant is kept in.
Buying the Monday before the election and selling Tuesday: https://www.pftq.com/stocks/images/2012-11-02_16-00,_Elections-Runups.csv (https://www.pftq.com/stocks/images/2012-11-02_16-00,_Elections-Runup.gif) Shorting the Tuesday of the election and covering next day: https://www.pftq.com/stocks/images/2012-11-02_16-00,_Elections-Selloff.csv (https://www.pftq.com/stocks/images/2012-11-02_16-00,_Elections-SellOff.gif) The percentage move between Tuesday and Wednesday seems high enough to make a straddle profitable though, so I might go for that on SPY this coming week. Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: wd1040 on November 03, 2012, 10:07:50 PM Given the massive sell-off on Monday (and gold at least at support) I support and have already bought some gold just to ride the bargain hunters.
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 04, 2012, 02:30:41 PM Running the presidential effect BIG is going to present on Tuesday:
http://invest.berkeley.edu/?x=wiki&b=12&z=january+presidential+effect 80% hitrate across 50 years. (https://www.pftq.com/stocks/images/2012-11-02_16-00,_JanPresidentialEffect.gif) Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 04, 2012, 02:46:27 PM Updated to use 3rd year of term only - better performance but not usable currently since Obama is in his 4th year.
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: wd1040 on November 04, 2012, 03:04:24 PM I still believe in technicals. I'm going to start entering buys at 1400... if it gets there on Monday or Tuesday.
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 04, 2012, 03:07:19 PM I will put together a weekly straddle for the fund. Still trying to look up how badly they decay over election night first.
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: wd1040 on November 04, 2012, 03:17:55 PM Should we do it on ultra 3xs? For this kind of straddle (basically putting it on red) we need something volatile or highly leveraged, don't we?
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 04, 2012, 03:21:19 PM Leveraged etfs have no volume in options Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: wd1040 on November 04, 2012, 03:24:10 PM What should be the targeted asset then? Individual targeted stocks like... Boeing or Lockheed?
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 04, 2012, 03:24:33 PM Also feel free to play with the election indicator I put in Tech Trader to see if there's some other entry/hold combination I overlooked that's better.
Title: Re: List of Presidential Election Dates Post by: pftq on November 04, 2012, 03:30:45 PM This is all being done on SPY. I looked at the other etfs - the returns are about the same for similar percentage moves.
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