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« Reply #360 on: November 01, 2011, 01:13:37 PM »

Summary of today: Greece has a referendum, then takes it back, then says it's still on, and I'm betting after hours they took it back again, judging by the huge AH price increases on SPY.

Picked up a bunch of calls at cheap prices, some 125x at .6 and some 129x at .07.  Have some puts at 121x to hedge.  Still thinking that these couple weeks are overall bullish... unless Greece does something stupid again.
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« Reply #361 on: November 01, 2011, 01:27:21 PM »

JDSU also back spiking above $12 after hours.  Got into Nov calls at $.30 -  Pretty darn risky for holding into earnings but I'm glad I did - looking forward to tomorrow. Smiley
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« Reply #362 on: November 01, 2011, 06:37:47 PM »

Watching AUD/USD here; it usually correlates w/ the market.  Right now it is setting up a nice double bottom, so if that holds, it'll confirm us having a nice bounce upwards in the market tomorrow.  However, downward resistance is pretty near so as of right now, it would still just be a bounce.



But maybe they'll convince Greece not to have that referendum and then we'll break out of the downtrend so that we go green for the holidays - who knows?

Makes perfect sense so far:
- Euro deal passes = 400 pt rally
- Greece referendum = 300pt drop
- Undo referendum = Market rallies
- Redo referendum = Market back to daily low.
- Greece "politically stable" by supporting referendum = Risk currencies (market) bounces back up. O_o
« Last Edit: November 01, 2011, 06:54:34 PM by pftq » Logged
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« Reply #363 on: November 02, 2011, 02:24:53 PM »

Nice bounce today, almost 200 points on DOW.  I'm expecting we'll see another day or two of continuation before coming back down again.

Going into December, I'm mainly watching this inverse H&S formation on FAS.  I realize FAS is not a market indicator, but I notice that it's generally been easier for me to gauge the market using it.  Maybe it smoothes out some of the more extreme fluctuations or something.


^Basically what I said about a couple more days or so of uptrend, then a pullback further for the right inverse shoulder (the 3rd dip in the W) before we go up more strongly.

For the longer term, I'm still thinking we'll be up overall in Q4 before we seriously head down in 2012.  If the chart above holds the next few weeks, it should confirm that.

Edit: Just keeping an eye on currencies here - we might go into that third dip sooner without more uptrend, so I'd watch for an entry on the short side rather than try to time the bounce.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2011, 04:33:44 PM by pftq » Logged
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« Reply #364 on: November 03, 2011, 09:14:07 AM »

Just another up day so far.  Gotta stop watching the market after close.  These other indicators are confusing my outlook.

Watching what happens at close today.  Another flip with Greece - referendum now called off again.
Depending how this week ends, maybe we'll stick to the overall up in Q4 and not bother with another dip.  It could be that the dip earlier in the week was sufficient to form the right inverse shoulder.
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« Reply #365 on: November 03, 2011, 10:58:32 AM »

SPY calls/puts straddle from Tuesday would've netted 75% if anyone picked up on them (Asee).

SPY 125x call -> .6 to $1.60 now (+166%)
SPY 121x put -> $1.1 to $.06 now (-95%)
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« Reply #366 on: November 03, 2011, 11:11:14 AM »

Yeah, going back to the outlook I had at the start of the week.  Overall bullish for Q4 and bearish for 2012.  Resistances at SPY 130 and 135 (possible turning points for when we turn bearish).

Sigh - need to stop changing my outlook based on intraday movements.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2011, 11:44:17 AM by pftq » Logged
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« Reply #367 on: November 03, 2011, 01:02:12 PM »

126 resistance broken on SPY.  Those 125x calls would've returned 300% if you sold today - maybe even higher if we continue up tomorrow.

Sigh
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« Reply #368 on: November 08, 2011, 01:37:42 PM »

Got in calls this morning when SPY was at 126.  Sorry for inactivity a bit - got like 3 exams this week so I haven't been trading too actively.

SPY at 127.90 now Smiley Calls up 60% (bought at $1, now at $1.60)
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« Reply #369 on: November 09, 2011, 07:38:10 AM »

Gap down to 124.7-ish.  Thinking we bounce here.  Picked up 125x SPY calls at 1.15
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« Reply #370 on: November 09, 2011, 12:58:57 PM »

^ The 125 calls went from $1.15 to $1.45 during the morning.  Had a limit at $1.40

Missed most of the action after 8am in class though.  Right now just watching the wedge at end of day:


My gut says we bounce upwards where the lines cross, but if you want to hold overnight, I'd go for a straddle (buy both calls/puts).  We did just break some strong support lines - expecting a lot more volatility tomorrow.
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« Reply #371 on: November 10, 2011, 10:12:52 AM »

Picked up SPY 125x calls at 123.0.  SPY is up past 124.20.

Looking at pullbacks near open and then 125, 126 resistance.
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« Reply #372 on: November 14, 2011, 01:48:58 PM »

Picked up more calls at 125 - looked like a similar floor to 123.  If you look at the daily chart, today's move seems to just be pullback on the way to the resist line near 126.5

Keeping just a few calls after close though and selling most of it.  I'd prefer to wait for us to get to another major resist/support on daily and go straddle from there (opp for 100%+ in options either direction).
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« Reply #373 on: November 15, 2011, 09:19:12 AM »

Opened up puts again near the middle of this morning's range to create a straddle w/ my existing calls.  Flat day so far but expecting a stronger move once we break consolidation.
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« Reply #374 on: November 15, 2011, 12:21:13 PM »

Testing 126.5 now.  If it breaks, I'll probably drop my puts and just ride the calls.

Picked up more calls at 125 - looked like a similar floor to 123.  If you look at the daily chart, today's move seems to just be pullback on the way to the resist line near 126.5

Keeping just a few calls after close though and selling most of it.  I'd prefer to wait for us to get to another major resist/support on daily and go straddle from there (opp for 100%+ in options either direction).
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