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4 unique view(s)

December 22nd, 2011

December 22nd, 2011 8:03:26 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
SPY at 125.  Up 60% overall now.

I still see resistance near 126 right now, but I might get out before then. If we move up slow enough, the downward trending resistance will hit under 126.
December 22nd, 2011 1:07:30 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of calls at SPY 125.21 (+80%) - not entering puts yet until we get clearer resistance or some kind of bb pinch on the charts.

Watching these other stocks at the moment as they've had good movement lately but not buying unless there's a good entry.
SLXP
AKAM
BA
PHH
MJN
BBBY
4 unique view(s)

December 21st, 2011

December 21st, 2011 1:37:04 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Pullback just as forementioned.  Added more calls on the dip.  Very nice that the later expiration didn't decay much.  Should probably do this from now on as the decay previously has been adding into the costs whenever I buy end-of-week expiration.
December 21st, 2011 1:39:19 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Market already spiking.. up 30% overall but don't want to risk a daytrade to close here.
4 unique view(s)

December 20th, 2011

December 20th, 2011 7:42:14 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Nice gap yes? Smiley Up 85% on calls and down 50% on puts.  One of these days I should just go towards the "leaning" side and avoid the hedging but I feel like that'll bite me.
December 20th, 2011 1:27:45 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked up some SPY 126x calls for the end of the month.  Just watching the daily chart here and looks like it'll at least test the upper end of the channel again.  No hedging this time - going to see if picking the expiration far out enough avoids being killed by decay if we get a pullback along the way.



Also thinking of getting January puts when we do get to the upper bound.
4 unique view(s)

December 19th, 2011

December 19th, 2011 11:04:51 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Very sharp pinch coming in on GLD.  Leaning bullish on this one.

4 unique view(s)

December 16th, 2011

December 16th, 2011 11:07:38 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Very nice pinch setup on GMCR if anyone wants to play a straddle on it with next week's options.  Leaning on the long side personally but it doesn't hurt to cover both sides just incase the market crashes.


Haven't been trading lately because of finals.  Lips Sealed  Hopefully not too busy with holidays coming up but we'll see.
5 unique view(s)

December 9th, 2011

December 9th, 2011 2:12:54 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Averaged down on calls yesterday to lock in gains on puts; probably should've just reset the straaddle though as a lot of value got lost to decay.

Calls hit around 125% today and puts got wiped to 0.  Was going to sell at SPY 126.30 but found out the broker automatically put in an order to market sell all my calls at about 125.98.  Shouldn't even be legal - there was about 15 minutes left before close (the auto-sell order was put in at 3:37 EST).  Bah, no more holding options so close to expiration.

Picked up 45x calls for DMND instead when the stock was at $39.  Market is right at resistance, so I'm just going to play individual stocks until we get more direction.

JCOF also just broke out on nice volume today.  Currently $.42, already 16% up from Wednesday.  Next resist is about $.50 and then $.65.
4 unique view(s)

December 7th, 2011

December 7th, 2011 8:25:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Currently +25% on the puts and -18% on calls.  Exited on calls and plan to sell puts when we dip lower today.

Bah, slightly heavier on calls though - need to stop deviating from the original plan.
December 7th, 2011 9:29:29 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Missed the dip down to 125 while walking to class... Bah, could have sold puts at 40% profit.  Going to see if we dip again later today; otherwise I'll cut my losses.
December 7th, 2011 10:30:17 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Stopped out of puts at 126.  Loaded back on calls <_<
Going to add puts back in at end of day or near 127 to reset my straddle.
December 7th, 2011 10:47:34 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
JCOF also building up the last few days.  Currently at $.36 - potential run if it can clear $.38 on good volume.
December 7th, 2011 12:11:38 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked up some SPY puts at SPY 126.24; little earlier than expected but resist seems pretty strong from 12/2.
December 7th, 2011 1:46:23 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked up the rest of the puts at 127.10; gotta stop breaking my strat mid-day and listen to myself.

Stopped out of puts at 126.  Loaded back on calls <_<
Going to add puts back in at end of day or near 127 to reset my straddle.
4 unique view(s)

December 6th, 2011

December 6th, 2011 12:31:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
30-min Bollingers pinching today so I'm going to go for another straddle near close.

Been watching the wedge form for today and adding calls near the bottom of it.  Added a few puts at the top, but I honestly think we're going to break upward on the wedge so I'm waiting for that to get the puts even cheaper.

December 6th, 2011 12:56:49 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Was slowly adding to more puts as SPY ran up toward 127 but stopped.  Think I'm just going to have a slightly heavier call side vs puts (which were entered cheap).  Doesn't really make sense to still go equal calls/puts if I'm expecting us to move up.  I might add a few at end of day instead if we move a lot higher and the puts are just dead cheap.
December 6th, 2011 3:05:46 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Should have stuck with the original plan to add more puts near the top. Would be up more with the market dipping at close today.

Need to stop deviating from the strat.
4 unique view(s)

December 5th, 2011

December 5th, 2011 8:01:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Into GMCR 65x calls at $0.25

Going to buy SPY calls when it dips later today; we broke last week's high, so we should have room to move towards 128-130.
December 5th, 2011 8:47:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Also, just to confirm this strategy works, if you set up the straddle last Friday with 125x calls and 126x puts (both ITM), you'd be up 60% on the calls right now and down 53% on the puts.  This is also assuming you buy/sell them at the same time and didn't time the puts better (ex sell at open before market rises 10:30-ish).  Bollingers weren't much of a pinch on Friday (which was why I didn't hold anything), but it's nice to see this still gives modest gains.

Just thought I'd share and outline the strategy I've been using the last few weeks to profit on the market no matter what direction the market goes.  That and incase I forget because I tend to forget what I say in the middle of the week.  Cheesy

This is almost a win-win strat IMO so feel free to use it yourself (and let me know how it goes Grin ).

Options Straddle on Volatile Markets
I'm mainly buying both calls and puts to form what's called a "straddle."  Basically you can lose 100% on one side but you count on the other going >100%; the best part is you don't have to care what direction, just the magnitude of the move.  For the index, I choose either SPY or FAS, depending on where I think the focus will be (read the news); SPY is general market while FAS leans toward financials.

This is a summary of the technical analysis I go through to set up the straddle:
- Check 30-min bollinger bands for pinch to see what days will gap. (last few weeks, it's pinched mid/end day and then gapped that night).
- Buy equal positions (in dollars, not contracts) on ITM calls/puts at end of day because decay eats up a lot during sideways movement intraday.
- Sell next morning, often at about 10:30-10:45am EST.  After 11am EST, market usually dips or trades sideways until ~3pm EST.

It's worked very nicely for me so far.  Usually count on the overnight gap being big enough for one side to go >100%.  If not, the losses are pretty small also (if the market doesn't gap enough or trades flat).  But just make sure to follow the strat consistently; I've had a few times where I was tempted to go long or short mid-day only to get the options much cheaper near the end of day (because of decay). -_-


(Notice the bollinger bands pinch on exactly the days there will be gaps, whether up or down.)
December 5th, 2011 10:00:43 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
GMCR 65x calls at $.39 now, +50% from this morning.

Into GMCR 65x calls at $0.25

Going to buy SPY calls when it dips later today; we broke last week's high, so we should have room to move towards 128-130.
5 unique view(s)

December 2nd, 2011

December 2nd, 2011 7:35:20 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
SPY at 126.10 now - totally called it. Grin Now I just need to listen to myself and not try to hold calls through resistance...

Thinking the next resist here is the 126-128 we had during the brief rally above the Aug-Sept. channel.
Exited most of my earlier calls (too deep in the money now to increase that much more) and picked up a few 126 SPY calls.  Will add more at end of day so I get less options decay.
December 2nd, 2011 8:39:25 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out on calls.  Market usually dips mid day so I'm waiting for that to exit on the hedged puts.

Also looks like the bollinger bands worked great for predicting today's gap.  Right now it looks like we won't get another pinch for a day or two, so I'm going to wait till next week to set up another straddle.  I might play pure calls/puts here and there though, we'll see. Cheesy
December 2nd, 2011 9:59:42 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Just thought I'd share and outline the strategy I've been using the last few weeks to profit on the market no matter what direction the market goes.  That and incase I forget because I tend to forget what I say in the middle of the week.  Cheesy

This is almost a win-win strat IMO so feel free to use it yourself (and let me know how it goes Grin ).

Options Straddle on Volatile Markets
I'm mainly buying both calls and puts to form what's called a "straddle."  Basically you can lose 100% on one side but you count on the other going >100%; the best part is you don't have to care what direction, just the magnitude of the move.  For the index, I choose either SPY or FAS, depending on where I think the focus will be (read the news); SPY is general market while FAS leans toward financials.

This is a summary of the technical analysis I go through to set up the straddle:
- Check 30-min bollinger bands for pinch to see what days will gap. (last few weeks, it's pinched mid/end day and then gapped that night).
- Buy equal positions (in dollars, not contracts) on ITM calls/puts at end of day because decay eats up a lot during sideways movement intraday.
- Sell next morning, often at about 10:30-10:45am EST.  After 11am EST, market usually dips or trades sideways until ~3pm EST.

It's worked very nicely for me so far.  Usually count on the overnight gap being big enough for one side to go >100%.  If not, the losses are pretty small also (if the market doesn't gap enough or trades flat).  But just make sure to follow the strat consistently; I've had a few times where I was tempted to go long or short mid-day only to get the options much cheaper near the end of day (because of decay). -_-


(Notice the bollinger bands pinch on exactly the days there will be gaps, whether up or down.)
5 unique view(s)

December 1st, 2011

December 1st, 2011 8:41:57 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of calls at about SPY 125.30 - we just broke the upward trend from yesterday afternoon; holding puts and will wait to see how far this next pullback goes.
December 1st, 2011 9:48:37 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of puts and into a fresh set of 125x calls at SPY 124.60

This is the support I'm looking at right now.
December 1st, 2011 10:30:00 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Just noticed that all the major overnight gaps occured during bollinger pinches on the 30-min scale.  This is going to be useful for picking which days to open straddles on (today for example, no real gap in either direction).

December 1st, 2011 11:20:05 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked out some puts at the top of today's wedge to complete my SPY 125x straddle - going to see if the bollingers are good for predicting a strong gap for tonight.

Edit: Ugh, I'm an idiot.  I'm betting long and I hedge w/ puts mid-day before anything happens.  Sigh, SPY breaking 125 now.  -_-
5 unique view(s)

November 30th, 2011

November 30th, 2011 8:16:19 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Market jumps 400 pts today.  Love the calls I had (+200%). Grin
Still wish I bought SPY instead of FAS though - they went 500%. <_<
November 30th, 2011 8:50:41 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Thinking the next resist here is the 126-128 we had during the brief rally above the Aug-Sept. channel.
Exited most of my earlier calls (too deep in the money now to increase that much more) and picked up a few 126 SPY calls.  Will add more at end of day so I get less options decay.
November 30th, 2011 11:45:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
EEE looking nice here as well - reminds me of EK, FMCN, AMR - lot of bounce plays lately.

The larger play was the bounce from last Friday, but it's also trending a small upward support right now if you want to channel trade it.  Bid is increasing nicely on level 2 as well.  I would just flip for 5 cents or so.

EEE
November 30th, 2011 1:46:57 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
There's our end-of-day rally. Smiley
 
I'm probably going to keep holding calls into tomorrow, hedge little with puts (which are really cheap now).
November 30th, 2011 1:57:52 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Best straddle I've set up in a while. Grin
SPY 124 calls averaged at $1, now $1.7
SPY 124 puts averaged at $.70, now $.65

Slightly heavier on the calls side.  Of course, it required me sitting here all day and timing these orders though (usually have class -_- ).
5 unique view(s)

November 29th, 2011

November 29th, 2011 8:19:28 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Market continuing up nicely... though I probably should have gotten calls on SPY or DIA since financials have generally been lagging.
5 unique view(s)

November 28th, 2011

November 28th, 2011 8:06:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Cashed out at open.  Netted 50% on the straddle on FAS at 50x I re-entered last Wednesday.

Looking for a pullback to get back into calls (unless the market dies after this Undecided ).  Entered back in a few when FAS dipped a bit under 54.
5 unique view(s)

November 23rd, 2011

November 23rd, 2011 8:31:32 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Straddle on SPY finally paying off - was starting to think maybe we won't get any large swings before Thanskgiving.

Exited the calls at 70% loss but am ~80% up on the puts side - just waiting now.

I might re-enter a few calls incase we get a bounce Friday but I'm expecting at least during the intraday that we keep heading down a bit.  Both STO and MACD are pointing downwards... though STO is a rather oversold at the moment - we'll see.
5 unique view(s)

November 21st, 2011

November 21st, 2011 7:56:29 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Ouch on market today - keeping straddles on all positions at close seems to be working well though.  Puts on AMZN went up 180% whereas the calls dipped about 90%.  SPY is about even so no loss/gain there but still holding.

I'm just hesitant to go full short because of what happened going into the Euro decision (selling off, then it passes and the market rallies to Oct highs).
November 21st, 2011 2:01:42 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Deviating from the current strat a bit.  Holding another straddle on SPY at 120x going into close in anticipation of the Super Committee event.  Also picked up a few calls (no puts) at 14x when FMCN was under $13; it looked too much like the EK thing to me.
122 unique view(s)

November 18th, 2011

November 18th, 2011 8:11:17 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
A couple weeks ago, I posted about a potential inverse H&S on FAS working a right shoulder for the holiday season.

Kind've forgot about it in the course of things but it seems like we're dipping just enough to get that right shoulder right now.  This means nothing if we break down further and ruin it, but it's interesting to see if we do confirm it (and thus get the EOY rally so many seem to expect, followed by a breakdown in 2012).

Here's an updated chart:


Right now, I'm in another SPY straddle in at 122, slightly weighted toward the long side.

Nice bounce today, almost 200 points on DOW.  I'm expecting we'll see another day or two of continuation before coming back down again.

Going into December, I'm mainly watching this inverse H&S formation on FAS.  I realize FAS is not a market indicator, but I notice that it's generally been easier for me to gauge the market using it.  Maybe it smoothes out some of the more extreme fluctuations or something.


^Basically what I said about a couple more days or so of uptrend, then a pullback further for the right inverse shoulder (the 3rd dip in the W) before we go up more strongly.

For the longer term, I'm still thinking we'll be up overall in Q4 before we seriously head down in 2012.  If the chart above holds the next few weeks, it should confirm that.

Edit: Just keeping an eye on currencies here - we might go into that third dip sooner without more uptrend, so I'd watch for an entry on the short side rather than try to time the bounce.
November 18th, 2011 8:33:45 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Added a few 205x calls at $3.40 on AMZN at 201 as well.  AMZN's right at 200-day SMA, seems to be good support around here and should at least bounce by next week.