pftq's Stocks and Investing

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Tech Trader


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Market updates written by Tech Trader itself, a fully autonomous system trading with no human intervention.
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464 unique view(s)

September 30th, 2015

September 30th, 2015 4:22:34 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Slow way to end the quarter.  Tech Trader remaining very tight at 52% long by 22% short and selling out of its intraday bottom ETF positions on today's bounce.  Overall Tech Trader is up about 20% for the year while SPY is down 5%.
449 unique view(s)

September 28th, 2015

September 28th, 2015 8:20:11 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Up today despite market being down a percent and Tech Trader being 60% long vs 25% short still.  Thanks to shorts like GLNG and ISIS.


Can't wait till we get another daily bottom.  So ready for it. Grin
September 28th, 2015 1:02:11 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ended up closing down .7% but solely on the intraday bottom ETF signals which are starting to load up; it's small compared to SPY down about 2.5%.  Stefen says his options account (which limits downside on the bottom signals via calls) is actually up 1.1% today.
478 unique view(s)

September 24th, 2015

September 24th, 2015 8:53:30 am
Posted by stefenchoy | #
stefenchoy (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Update On TT.  Since Aug 18th 2015.  SPY is down 8.5%, during the same period TT is up 1.5%.  TT is again starting to build its long exposure.  Currently long vs short exposure (out of 200%) is 70% long/ 21% short.  TT is also leaving plenty of dry powder to add to the long exposure by having a total exposure of only 91% out of maximum 200%.  Most traders or funds are currently lowering exposure or reducing risk.  This is another great example of how TT manages overall portfolio even though all the trades are done on a stock by stock basis.  

TT Options during the same time period is up 2.7%.

497 unique view(s)

September 22nd, 2015

September 22nd, 2015 7:44:41 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Looking forward to seeing this sell off pick up and hopefully getting yet another rare SPY RSI2 signal. Stefen said he had Fibonacci traders tell him September 23 would be the big collapse in the market, but it seems like the perfect irony if it turns out to be the bottom instead.
September 22nd, 2015 12:42:37 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
My comprehensive SPY strategy (the first strategy I ever wrote) just traded again, covering its short and going long on SPY.  Again, no real idea if it'll be a 1-day trade or a 1-year trade (it can randomly switch from holding for 2 years to trading every day), but it's just interesting to see.  As mentioned previously, a lot of my abandoned strategies have been waking up this year.
517 unique view(s)

September 21st, 2015

September 21st, 2015 1:16:21 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
That was probably the easiest flip in a while.  After making a killing on the SPY short, the very next trading day has Tech Trader now making on the long side instead with the ETFs (XLK, XLB, DIA); also added IBB at pretty much the low of the day.  The market has been chopping between negative and positive all day, but Tech Trader's held a steady 50bps up all day regardless of the market movement.  Ironically the biggest winner today is its short on ISIS (the stock is down 8%).


What's most impressive is how quickly it flipped from neutral to net short to now net long in just the past week, each time getting the exact day the market turns, and it is now just grinding higher on each swing the market makes.  This is after being "asleep" for most of September with no signals.  SPY again shown in red for comparison.
536 unique view(s)

September 18th, 2015

September 18th, 2015 1:23:40 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader covered its RSI2 SPY trade today, out at $195.27 after shorting at about $200 on Wednesday, the exact top of the week (by closing price).  Equity netted 2%.  Weekly 200x puts made 95.3% from $2.32 to $4.53.  Month-out 200x puts made 45.5% from $4.20 to $6.11.

The once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal's 100% hitrate since 2008 track record remains intact.  As usual, the signal occurred while we were traveling and right before a major catalyst event (the Fed), but also as usual, the outcome of the actual event didn't matter.


Tech Trader is also now rotating into smaller intraday bottom-scalping long ETF positions (currently DIA, XLK, and XLB).  Exposure flipped in one day from 55% short by 40% long to now 65% long by 23% short.  Portfolio-level P&L finally stopped flat-lining and is going to new highs.  SPY again shown for comparison.


The hybrid equity+options portfolio that replaces ETF-timing trades with month-out options is up 6.5% for September so far with .5% drawdown.  Will be interesting to see if it can augment returns of the base strategies without increasing risk significantly, but we'll see with time.  Again, this is all fully automated.
September 18th, 2015 3:24:09 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Even with the dividend, SPY is down a dollar. Looks like the RSI2 SPY short signal is set here, but I'll be stuck on flight for most the morning. Bah
September 18th, 2015 3:44:35 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Make that SPY down $2 to $197 now after dividends. Weeklies will be up at least 50% here.  Man, this just always has to happen while on flight lol Going to have to just trust in Tech Trader here
555 unique view(s)

September 17th, 2015

September 17th, 2015 7:05:31 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
CVC up 16% on acquisition.  No matter what happens today with the Fed, Tech Trader is already up almost a percent and at new highs for the year.
September 17th, 2015 1:05:54 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Freaking awesome. SPY rallies briefly on Fed news before giving it all back and closing negative.  Tech Trader up a percent on both long names and the short SPY position. Of course, this can only happen while the whole team is out getting ice cream lol
SPY on Tech Trader
557 unique view(s)

September 16th, 2015

September 16th, 2015 8:05:04 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to churn higher - currently at new highs for the year now.  SPY (with divs) now included in the same chart for comparison.


What's more interesting are the abandoned strategies that I monitor in a separate book.  They're catching up to the official portfolio now.  The older strategies are actually net short now for the first time since July, which is pretty scary given that Fed is tomorrow.  It's also planning to add another 50 potential names or so on the short side off of SPY's little rally today due to being overbought near resistance, with heavy-weight ETF positions among them.

September 16th, 2015 9:43:21 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY just showed up as a potential short trade on my RSI2 SPY signal (the big one).  Ugh, why does it always have to be near such big catalyst events, right before Fed day?! Sad

No signals for weeks and suddenly it wants to take a huge short bet.  I hope it cancels before end of day lol
September 16th, 2015 1:06:53 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And we're in... rare RSI2 SPY signal is short the day before probably the year's most anticipated Fed announcement.  This is like the feeling you get when you're so excited for a rollercoaster until you're actually looking down from the top of the hill... (and it doesn't help that we'll be out on a flight during tomorrow morning! Sad )
September 16th, 2015 9:49:37 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Why are we always out traveling when all this happens?? <_<
September 16th, 2015 10:24:44 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Now Tech Trader is thinking about shorting virtually every ETF at the end of day.  We're literally on a plane the next two mornings.  Stefen doesn't get to book our travels anymore.
September 16th, 2015 9:10:26 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
CVC up 16% after hours on acquisition deal. This is like the 5th trade this year Tech Trader got that jumped 15% overnight, with the last one being MDCO.  Another great example of the idiosyncratic alpha Tech Trader captures that is more characteristic of fundamental/technical guys than quants. Should be nice padding for the big day tomorrow.
619 unique view(s)

September 10th, 2015

September 10th, 2015 1:29:22 pm
Posted by stefenchoy | #
stefenchoy (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Update on TT Options.

It appears that TT is on vacation.  TT has done one trade in the month of
September. This couldn't be further from the truth.  TT always seem to
amaze me in the fact that even though  analysis is done on a
stock by stock bases, the portfolio management is impeccable.  Current
uncertainty in the market place provides a wise trader  time to contemplate
on the next best move.
An inexperienced trader would get bored and start putting on trades that
are at best marginal.  Right now when I look at the market place most
trades are at best marginal (coin flip).
It was even more impressive when I saw an interview today where David
Tepper advised people to take some money off the table.  TT has just done
that but weeks before today's interview.
How?  wouldn't you guys like to know.
September 10th, 2015 2:37:51 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
lol this will change once we start traveling next week. Market goes nuts as soon as our backs are turned.
626 unique view(s)

September 9th, 2015

September 9th, 2015 12:48:00 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Pretty hilariously awesome day.  SPY opens up a percent before selling off and ending up down a percent.  Tech Trader opens flat as usual but then actually gains half a percent as the market sells off, despite being net long at 30% long x 20% short.  As usual, the most exciting days happen when one of us is out traveling (me this time); had the foresight this time to blindly throw on a few SPY weekly 201 puts before boarding, which are already up 100%.  Getting pretty good at mastering this Fate and Irony stuff.  Can't wait to see what happens when all 3 of us are out traveling on Fed Day. Grin


Meanwhile SPY... flopping like a dead fish as usual these past weeks.
639 unique view(s)

September 8th, 2015

September 8th, 2015 1:44:17 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Sorry for the lack of updates.. because there hasn't been anything to update.  Tech Trader has literally flatlined in performance since the end of August and just held at year highs...

... while SPY flops up and down near year lows.
652 unique view(s)

September 1st, 2015

September 1st, 2015 1:20:34 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader yet again positive for the day and at year highs, while the market is down 3% today and at year lows.  Still 38% long vs 25% short, but the shorts are greatly outperforming what little the longs are down.


As usual, notice just how unaffected Tech Trader's performance is from SPY's whiplashing up and down. Shown in the SPY chart below is also the old Comprehensive SPY strategy's short signal from yesterday which pretty much nailed it.  It's not in the core portfolio for Tech Trader, but we're having fun just manually trading weeklies in small lots around it here in our PAs.  Interesting again that many of my older strategies (first Trendlines and now Comprehensive SPY strategy) are coming back to life.
658 unique view(s)

August 31st, 2015

August 31st, 2015 7:56:29 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Hm.. the first strategy I ever wrote now wants to short SPY after selling around 213 a couple months ago. Kind of disturbing. It's made plenty of mistakes in the past though and is more of a slow moving guy, can hold for years, so it's just fun to watch more than anything.  Again, just very interesting to see all my older, abandoned 2012-era strategies coming back alive now after several years of silence.

August 31st, 2015 1:19:03 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Market grinds down another percent.  Tech Trader is yet again up a percent while being only 30% long by 20% short.  Idiosyncratic returns coming into play here while the market timing signals are quiet, this time from MDCO which it's held since July and is up over 20% today on.
677 unique view(s)

August 28th, 2015

August 28th, 2015 1:08:16 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's overall equity-only portfolio (not including the SPY options trade, only the equity) is already back within 2% of the year highs.  Exposures are also crushed to an extremely neutral 34% long by 26% short.  SPY meanwhile is still down about 7% from the highs and under $200.
August 28th, 2015 12:25:43 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The fluid rotation in Tech Trader's strategies is constantly impressive, despite having absolutely no portfolio awareness or central control (every position is independently monitored/traded).  First the individual names wind down exposure in July, then Bottom 30 Min strategies recede into the background to let Trendlines short everything on the market correction, then Trendlines closes out in lock step with RSI2 SPY buying the bottom (and making an insane +700% in calls), and now that RSI2 SPY is done, the torch passes back to individual names, which again are up a solid percent while the market is flat.
August 28th, 2015 1:23:14 pm
Posted by stefenchoy | #
stefenchoy (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Update on TT Options -  I know you guys are wondering how is TT Options
doing during this wild ride?

Here are the latest stats - 134 trades opened and closed  TT options up
11.5% per trade, TT up 1.1% per trade.
Since May 26th when TT Options got launched  SPX -5.5%, TT 3.7%,  TT
Options up 23% (*31% *if trades prior to May 26th were not included).


This was done while the portfolio was leaning long the entire time in ratio
between 2 to 1 and 4 to 1.

To say that Tech Trader was awesome is not doing Tech Trader justice.
While leaning long the entire time Tech Trader managed to gain 3.7% while
SPX lost 5.5%.
The big trade came when TT triggered a very rare but very successful RSI2
SPY signal.  For those of you who do not have access to this trade.  This
triggered has hit at an amazing 100% hit rate since beginning of 2008.
657 unique view(s)

August 27th, 2015

August 27th, 2015 6:51:37 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY at $197! Jinxed it by exiting the $191 weekly calls yesterday ($4.5 from $1.5, +200%)... Except I still have my $197 weeklies (now $1.7 from $.3, >+500% gain) and $191 month-out ($8.5 from $3.93, >+100% gain). Take that Fate! Tech Trader is one step ahead of you. Bahaha!

Again, Tech Trader's 100% hitrate on calling SPY tops/bottoms (aka the once-in-a-blue-moon SPY signal) remains intact. Grin
(Note the orange sell means it's thinking about but hasn't sold yet... though I'll probably at least let go of the weeklies mid-day to avoid decay)
August 27th, 2015 1:09:48 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And that's the end of Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon 100% hitrate SPY signal.
6.5% on the equity from $187 to $199
200% on the initial weekly 191 calls from $1.5 to $4.5
700% on the roll to weekly 197 calls from $.3 to $2.12 (my bad for selling early, would have been $3 if I let Tech Trader do this, sorry Tech Trader)
57% on the 197.5 calls Tech Trader rebought this morning in disagreement to my selling from $1.47 to $2.32
160% on the month-out 191 calls that Tech Trader bought and held the whole time as a baseline return from $3.93 to 10.23.

I think I might have to step down here after costing Tech Trader 200% on potential gains lol.  There was actually a funny moment today where I literally couldn't sell because something in Tech Trader was blocking my order.  Now we know why.  I'm officially unneeded.

August 27th, 2015 8:00:07 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Man... those 191x calls I sold yesterday... Tech Trader saw it was missing and bought it back.  Only the initial base capital size, but they're already up 20%.  I'm no longer in charge anymore lol

Edit: The calls it bought were 197.5x to replace the 191x.  Just clarification.
August 27th, 2015 8:31:08 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Alright, out of my moonshot 197x weeklies at $2.12 (~700% from .3).  I'll let Tech Trader take the reins from here with the new reset weekly calls it bought this morning and the month-out calls it's still holding.
653 unique view(s)

August 26th, 2015

August 26th, 2015 11:01:47 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The blue moon SPY signal nailed the market bottom (from a close-to-close basis of which it operates anyway).  Currently up 2% in stock, 50% in 191x weeklies, and 25% in 191x month-out calls.  I totally forgot it also had a price target.  Currently its target is 197 and will adjust according to market conditions.  I went ahead and added some 197x weekly calls as well in case we do jump that high.
August 26th, 2015 1:58:40 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The 100% hitrate since 2008 of my once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY strategy remains intact! Bahaha! Grin
August 26th, 2015 12:36:19 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
So many people were doubting my price target as soon as I put that out, but now we're shooting straight up lol
This is the Power of Fate and Irony - letting the most ironic outcomes always be in your favor.  Got me so inspired that I wrote an article on it, but hey, it's going to be the basis of my newest project so it's about time. Grin
August 26th, 2015 12:53:41 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
In spirit of the irony post I just wrote, I'll sell my weeklies now to ensure the success of our trade by regretting this decision tomorrow, but I'll survive this regret with my other calls lol
191x weekly calls up +200%.  Still holding month out 191x up 85%.

BUT... I also have a fresh position in 197x calls at $.30 (now $1.01).  Fate won't see it coming if we rally crazy tomorrow. Tongue
589 unique view(s)

August 25th, 2015

August 25th, 2015 4:34:00 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Here's a review of where things are at.  Tech Trader did end up taking a hit (largely Monday) and is down 5% off the highs of 20%.  Markets are off about 12% from the highs, however, and SPY is actually negative for the year now.   The playbook currently is in ETFs and market timing.  Positions in individual names remain very neutral as a portfolio thanks to the large exposure cutting that Tech Trader did in July.  Tech Trader is getting longer on each sell off day but only in increments where it thinks might be the bottom, leaving a lot of dry powder to average down.  As the market bounces, Tech Trader will scale some out, and if we go lower, it will average down again.  It will do this until we get back into an uptrend of sorts where market timing signals will then recede and individual names start coming back into play.

Currently it is 112% long by 24% short, with 30% of that long exposure just now being added from Tuesday's close.  If you look at exposures below, you'll see that long is slowly increasing but in the sector charts, all the exposure is coming from ETFs (n/a) which is dwarfing any contribution from individual names right now.  



As usual, a YTD chart of SPY for comparison always highlights how stable Tech Trader's performance is compared to the market despite being largely net long most the year (let's not kid ourselves, SPY looks like a nightmare).
August 25th, 2015 6:43:34 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Prodigal signal returns again.  Let's see if it can finally hold into the close.

Update: No bottom signal per se but Tech Trader bought anyway at the very last minute at $187.41 due to the volume and severe price decline.  Fingers crossed; didn't take a bottom signal to bounce from October.  Very last minute (literally) buy though at the sudden plunge below $188 and only possible because Tech Trader is fully automated.

August 25th, 2015 2:41:02 pm
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Freaking trendline breaks strategy (one of my first super-primitive ones years ago) is doing extremely well.  Up 15% now for the month.  Perhaps I should give the abandoned strategy a more serious look; hard to say.
525 unique view(s)

August 24th, 2015

August 24th, 2015 7:19:07 am
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
At long last, my once-in-a-blue-moon buy signal on SPY is finally here. I've been waiting all year for this.  Grin
Would wait until close, don't get hasty in case of the remote chance Tech Trader changes its mind.
(but seriously, what are the chances of filling a $10 gap in SPY by end of day?)
Update: Yet again cancelled near the close.  The volume and price action is there though, so it'll probably be soon.  I need to stop posting these in advance before they actually get traded.  The only thing we got is a couple ETFs (XLV and SLV) intraday again. <_<
SPY on Tech Trader

This is what a proper sell off looks like.  Tech Trader wants to buy *everything*.  Days like this are a beautiful example of how Tech Trader is NOT quant or conventional algo trading and definitely not mean reverting. All the other quants I know of started scaling in last week and got hit big time, unlike Tech Trader aiming for precision with technical analysis to figure out the exact bottoms (or at least pretty darn close).