pftq's Stocks and Investing

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Tech Trader


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1113 unique view(s)

September 19th, 2016

September 19th, 2016 1:19:27 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Out of $SLV for 2%. Still reducing overall. Now 40% long by 30% short; 60% cash again like January.
1135 unique view(s)

September 16th, 2016

September 16th, 2016 8:36:24 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to get more defensive here by buying $SLV and shorting $EWG. This in context of already closing old positions and buying things on dip instead.
SLV
1154 unique view(s)

September 14th, 2016

September 14th, 2016 1:00:24 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back into some names on pullback $AMD, $VRX

1136 unique view(s)

September 13th, 2016

September 13th, 2016 12:52:22 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Still getting shorter, sold another position and then shorted $INTU. Exposures now 50% long by 25% short.
INTU
September 13th, 2016 1:09:56 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Makes sense. I remain net short. Risk parity funds are blowing up now. Nowhere to hide.

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1053 unique view(s)

September 12th, 2016

September 12th, 2016 10:20:39 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Market already rebounding from Friday. Tech Trader barely got a few punches in before the sell off ended.  Ah well.
September 12th, 2016 10:44:52 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ended? Do you see signs that it ended or is it just a beginning? What do
you look at? VIX?  Thanks
September 12th, 2016 12:53:25 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to cut both longs and shorts. Exposure now 61% long by 21% short if you exclude the short-term ETF buys from Friday.
September 12th, 2016 4:04:33 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Why are you cutting? Do you think a selloff would continue?
My model oddly is buying USD.
Thanks

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September 12th, 2016 4:06:34 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Not necessarily bearish, just neutral. It's just not seeing positions it wants to stay in at this time.
September 12th, 2016 9:47:35 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Got it. Thanks!

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1069 unique view(s)

September 9th, 2016

September 9th, 2016 8:28:37 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader starting to buy again initially w/ $IWM, $IYR, $XHB after dodging today's selloff by being underinvested.
September 9th, 2016 10:25:51 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Good luck. You are buying a very overvalued market but central banks could come and save us. I am scared to be long ahead of FEd and BOJ on 21st.



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September 9th, 2016 12:41:20 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader appears to be hedging itself by simultaneously shorting two more names $RSG, $LOW (utilities, consumer).

983 unique view(s)

September 8th, 2016

September 8th, 2016 5:52:17 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Are you surprised that TT hasn't bought financials?  Neither Euro nor US. What is your interpretation?

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September 8th, 2016 5:55:59 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
In general, I would think of inaction exactly as just that - inaction.  It
just doesn't see any opportunity but it doesn't mean it's bearish. Tech
Trader is very conservative, so it takes a lot of ideal conditions for it
to want to make a trade.
September 8th, 2016 8:32:06 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Thanks for the reply. Fascinated by this AI.

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September 8th, 2016 9:01:38 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Maybe because European banks are not in your universe? I had many buy signals on DB and CS back in July. I think today was a short term top. I unloaded because I did not like what ECB did. I am still bullish on them medium term but Fed is a threat near term.



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September 8th, 2016 9:07:34 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
No they're in the universe, just no signals.
September 8th, 2016 9:13:02 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Were you short Gold and miners? That might still work for next few weeks I think.

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September 8th, 2016 9:16:33 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
No we went long $EGO a couple days ago, which is a gold miner.
906 unique view(s)

September 7th, 2016

September 7th, 2016 12:57:38 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to get more neutral, taking gains on $VRX, $ZAYO, and shorting $MCHI. Total exposure now 61% long by 25% short.
September 7th, 2016 2:22:43 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tomorrow is ECB. Expectations are pretty high from equity guys. Bonds are much less optimistic. Given Fed meeting is less of an event (weak U.S. Macro data likely removed Sept hike from the table), tomorrow's ECB is very important. BOJ is not until end of the month.

It is incredible how equities diverged from macro this month. CBs meetings drive price discovery and all market does is re-positioning for CB meetings. In the meantime, economic growth is deteriorating as monetary stimulus is failing to spur growth and inflation. I don't think CBs are ready to give up, hence bond yields are not going to rise and lower growth will have to get priced in equities.


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996 unique view(s)

September 2nd, 2016

September 2nd, 2016 1:21:17 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to unload old positions $AMD, $CSC, $GES, $WWAV. Portfolio now 70% long by 25% short.  Max exposure in any sector back down to the 10% level (no longer biased to tech).  New names added include $STM and $TIVO, which like $POT / $MOS / $CHS are just starting to move.

September 2nd, 2016 6:36:26 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Market was relieved by weak NFP but it was a wrong reaction. The market should be worried about weak private payrolls. We have service ISM on 6th which would also most likely disappoint.

I see probability of hike at 30% for September with weak economic data and can't really get excited about risk. The probability should be zero like it was back in June post Brexit. Now I want to be short and defensive. Fed would likely try to talk  up hike damaging risk further, ECB would likely disappoint, and Kuroda would be a clown on 4th. I think this market is too dangerous to be long especially high beta but maybe this is why those who are long would get rewarded.
  I am upset about calling weak job report correctly  and not making much money on the right call because of fake reaction today. Why did curve steepen? Ridiculous.Momentum factor only gained 0.17% today also because Oil was up for some stupid reason (Putin opened his mouth). Anyways next week will be fun. Hopefully roller coaster.


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1017 unique view(s)

September 1st, 2016

September 1st, 2016 12:44:55 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Getting more neutral with shorts in $MLHR, $IWD and long $EGO (gold co). Total exposure now 76% long by 25% short but the longs are names like $MOS, $POT, etc.


September 1st, 2016 12:57:32 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Also just added $PAY as a potential breakout.
963 unique view(s)

August 31st, 2016

August 31st, 2016 8:23:05 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
IWM short is starting to work after very disappointing Oil report gave people reason to sell. But looking at other data today, nothing to get excited about besides ADP jobs report. Strong jobs with weaker economy is the trap Fed is in.
 
TLT continues to sell off too, which is not consistent with suggests a tough day for risk parity funds. If Equity vol rises now, these guys would indiscriminately sell equities. I would be much less concerned if we had a classical risk off: equities down and bonds up.

EWZ opened up and now down 1.54%.




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August 31st, 2016 6:36:47 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Just saw Chinese PMI beat. Not good for risk. Tomorrow US ISM is the biggest data point at 7am PST.


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962 unique view(s)

August 30th, 2016

August 30th, 2016 2:32:55 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader picked up $MOS amid all the chatter on $POT and $AGU merger.
August 30th, 2016 2:33:11 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Oil and USD are working. Bond yields also fell since Friday. However bid for equities remains strong. Equities are diverging from macro: reinforces my short risk recommendation. NFP this Friday will be huge! Last chance to sell before we get the most important data point for Fed. If NFP prints above 220k jobs, I expect a hike in September. While U.S can stomach another hike, can the rest of the world with Oil still below 50 and deflation? I think we are going to see some fireworks soon.



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912 unique view(s)

August 26th, 2016

August 26th, 2016 7:33:15 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And just as Tech Trader expected, $SPY and $QQQ rally on Yellen speaking; taking gains of over half a percent each.

August 26th, 2016 1:01:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yeah $SPY is down only slightly and $QQQ actually is positive while defensive sector $XLU is down over 2%. It looks like people are actually rotating out of defensive into risk. Tech Trader meanwhile taking a lot off the table on both sides and getting more neutral, now about 67% long by 25% short (33% cash), with technology remaining the biggest exposure at 25%.
August 26th, 2016 9:41:20 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
I am expecting risk off next week. I am disappointed today with weak risk off reaction but next week would be ugly. "Bloody Monday"...


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August 26th, 2016 10:43:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Doesn't seem like much risk-off at all today. Defensive sectors like $XLU and $XLP are actually selling off hardest while everything else is holding up.
August 26th, 2016 1:46:56 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Surprised TT hasn't bought into financials?
August 26th, 2016 5:20:54 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yes  you are right. I expected Fed to be dovish but they came out hawkish, which caused repositioning and created this illusion of 'risk on'. High beta out performed low beta by 0.9% today and Momentum lost 0.35%. This is good for today but worse for next few weeks. I think we get a massive reversal and you want to own Utes and Staples. I am amazed how oil held up relative to USD move. It might be up for geopolitical reasons or it a fake reaction. Let's see on Monday. Next week will be interesting. I stayed defensive and even added. Good luck


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August 26th, 2016 5:25:31 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
By the way look at EWZ and EEM. I was short since last week, as well as XBI. These are early signs of risk off. I am short IWM too which is flat since I shorted it but it does look weak and ready to break down soon. It is just my opinion.


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August 26th, 2016 5:35:15 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
I recommend to be neutral or short Oil and energy stocks. Next Friday is NFP, which is expected to be strong, and if it is strong they could hike. USD would likely rally next week (normally the case after hawkish Fed) and Oil inventories in US are now turning up. Chinese demand is likely going to weaken since they are consuming less and exporting more. Geopolitical risk (Yemen threat for Saudi oil) keeps oil up which means it is overvalued relative to fundamentals.

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793 unique view(s)

August 25th, 2016

August 25th, 2016 7:04:29 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader dip buying a bunch of ETFs $SPY, $QQQ, $XBI before Fed, which seems to be the pattern now.
SPY on Tech Trader