My model is short TLT and GLD. But good luck with your trade. Your hope that risk aversion comes back.


Sent from my iPhone

>

Quiet day with no new trades; biggest winners in $MDCO, $PBR, $AMBA, and $NVDA. Up a percent with $SPY at half percent despite only being 80% long by 20% short.

For those curious about the technology, we have uploaded our talk at Hyperloop last month: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qcbzFyPtqM

Loading up on breakout longs again, this time $BMRN, $PLCM, $TJX, $WWAV (again). Was very long into Brexit but turned out not to matter as $SPY just broke year highs. Still only 80% long by 15% short right now but managing to capture full performance of the S&P even without being fully invested.  Sector exposures are still neutral though with no one sector more than 10% exposure.

$WWAV another name bought out after having lots of suspicious call buying, but again already out. Tech Trader is very tight this year, hopefully loosens up soon to stop missing these.

Up a bit over 1% for June vs $SPY down slightly despite being very long into Brexit. Exposures back to neutral at 70% long by 20% short with no real sector bet, though an old favorite $PBR has come back into play. Tech Trader just expecting continued breakout, but we as humans might see it as a cup-and-handle formation.

$LGF and $STRZA which we saw call buying in last month are acquiring each other.  Unfortunately already out of those, but just interesting to see how many of our signals often end up being M&A.

Wrong about Brexit, but positions like short $BTI turned out to hedge us a bit. Will see if Tech Trader's market timing trades start kicking in today to average down.

Long $HEDJ and short $BTI into Brexit on options activity, which might be the same bet against Britain leaving. Also long $YPF, more energy again.

Tech Trader remaining very long here going into Fed and Brexit with exposures in Consumer and Technology neck to neck at 25%.  Again mostly in content oriented tech/consumer like $YELP, $LGF, $NVDA... almost wonder if this is a broader VR play.

Back into $ETP and $WWAV on call activity again. These seem to be favorites of Tech Trader.

Our short mattresses thesis is finally playing out. $MFRM down 15% after hours on earnings miss. $TPX should follow.

Picked up $WPG from the massive price spike at close on deal chatter. Spiked minutes before the news; go figure.

Tech Trader doing well across the board with $SPY breaking year highs after going fully invested long back in May, which at the time seemed counter-intuitive with all the bearish talk on the streets, hawkish Fed, and expectations of sell-in-May seasonal weakness.  Sector exposures are still largely long Consumer but as you can see in the chart below, it is very long everything else as well with next largest exposures being Technology and Energy.

As we noted back in May, Tech Trader has finally “woken up” and is fully invested net long across the board, with largest exposures in Consumer at 30%, followed by Technology and Energy but otherwise evenly distributed on most other sectors. It is most ironic but all the more impressive that Tech Trader has constantly gone against the conventional thinking this year by staying out of the market in January (against “January effect”), buying Energy in March (against those worried about oil), and most recently buying almost everything across the board (against “sell-in-May” and worries about Fed raising rates). That said, Tech Trader is also making returns primarily from stock selection and not general market movement (although the market has also started going back to highs). Some of the largest gains in the past month, for example, have been from shorting brick-and-mortar retail names like MFRM, TPX, and BBY (mattresses and Best Buy) as well as more specific catalyst names like GOGO (airline internet) and CXRX (failed healthcare deal). Many of the names on the long side are also very specific niches like smaller content providers (LGF, STRZA, YELP, LTRPA) and, in a way, the bigger companies in Silicon Valley (AAPL, INTU, AMBA, NVDA). Lastly, what’s interesting to observe is all these bets Tech Trader takes (even the Energy one which started in mid-March) all take months to play out, confirming out emphasis that Tech Trader is neither quant nor high-frequency but actually investing on a medium-to-long-term horizon. As we head into the Fed meeting in mid-June, we expect Tech Trader’s bet against everyone’s rate-hike fears will hold steady and surprise to the upside.

Another big win from shorting $GOGO, down as much as 17% this morning. Opened flat but probably just a gap-fill like $LGF which opened flat but went back to premarket prices by end of day.  Originally shorted last week due to unusual buying detected on the $10-strike puts.

GOGO 6/17/2016 10x Puts, 9000@$0.4
MV: $0.4M | $Not.: $2.6M | OI: 305 | 22.3% TotalOI
2.9% StockVolume | 47.2% OptionVolume

Two big winners today in long $CIEN and short $CXRX, both from options activity. Heavy call buying yesterday in $CIEN before its earnings beat today and a large bearish risk reversal in $CXRX last week before the Blackstone takeover fell apart just now. All the news and talk around $CXRX was positive until just now, so whoever bought that risk reversal last week was betting against the crowd.

Last week, we noted Tech Trader was buying virtually everything across the board and seemed to be short the dollar, except that it strangely bought $UUP (the dollar ETF) as well. Ironically both $SPY and $UUP are now testing highs. Funny how things play out.

It seems like all the seasonal patterns are breaking down this year (January effect, sell in May, etc). Happy holiday weekend to everyone and looking forward to see what comes next.

Had a question about our $AAPL trade - Tech Trader is looking at it as a longer term play with resistance at ~ $112. The system identified a lot of accumulation in the $90s and below (the "BOT" flags) and will likewise hold for medium-long term or until it sees similar magnitude in selling.  See chart below.

Market back to all-time highs. Both longs and shorts working. $CSC up 30% on merger while $BBY dropped 7% despite beating earnings. Even the $UUP dollar bet is up, which is ironic. Still very long consumer, energy, and healthcare here while being short brick-and-mortar. For whatever reason, Tech Trader is short a bunch of brick-and-mortar mattress companies $MFRM and $TPX; looking forward to see how those turn out.

Continuing to get longer Consumer and Energy here with $BAH and $ECA.

What does Techtrader say about George Soros’ big short bet against SPY?