pftq's Stocks and Investing

Trading Guide

Tech Trader


Virtual Trading System

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Updates by Tech Trader, a fully autonomous trading system with no human intervention.
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467 unique view(s)

December 1st, 2015

December 1st, 2015 10:31:39 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$1M in SMH puts now.  So strange.  Maybe something to do w/ first of the month.
SMH 1/15/2016 56x Puts, 5000@$2.0499
MV: $1.0M | $Not.: $15.4M | OI: 226 | 6.3% TotalOI
31.9% StockVolume | 47.8% OptionVolume
Not
507 unique view(s)

November 18th, 2015

November 18th, 2015 11:00:55 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very incredible day.  Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal is finally out of its position, and there is literally no better price it could have done so.  It's been one of the longer held trades for sure, but we basically rallied all the way up to $209 today, which was actually Tech Trader's original target price before TT took its gains.  Again, in the face of rate increase, terrorist attacks, and even the Fed minutes which sparked the late-day rally today, Tech Trader's hitrate on this strategy remains 100%.


The funniest part about all this is I spent most the trading day looking for WiFi spots in HK (disgusting place to wander at night, really).  Fate and Irony at its best when I physically cannot trade and Tech Trader is just killing it without me.  The weekly calls on SPY I put on with TT yesterday were exploding all day with me nowhere in sight (but under the care of Tech Trader of course).

Performance from Tech Trader on today alone.  Needless to say SPY singlehandedly contributed more than 1% to the portfolio.


Year-to-date, Tech Trader is again back to highs, with the small dip being the November sell off.  Sector-wise, ETFs are quickly becoming among the top contributers to performance, meaning trading SPY just these 3 or so times this year has been almost as much P&L as trading an entire sector all year long.

505 unique view(s)

November 17th, 2015

November 17th, 2015 1:37:19 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ah it's like someone heard our call.  Market closed just shy of Tech Trader's exit target.  We'll be fighting for at least another day. Tongue

Very interesting day though.  It seems like right around mid-day, someone of size started liquidating heavily.  Anyone who trades intraday can see that there were a lot of attempts to rally only for someone to sell into each one.  If it were the general market sentiment, you wouldn't see such sustained sell pressure every time the market attempted to bounce; it'd be much more choppy.

Also having a lot of fun on my end daytrading the heck out of this market.  Been a long time, but I'm starting to get back into the hang of things, especially with Tech Trader as sort of my guide for where to aim my trading (target prices, etc).

A ton of scalping and scaling, but it feels great to be back.  Also just loving trading from Asia. You trade at night and live during the day.  It's like your days are twice as long.  A taste of my trades from just the last two days lol
November 17th, 2015 8:44:13 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
There goes SPY hitting $207 just now, Tech Trader's price target from yesterday (today it'll sell anywhere above $206.5 at the close, which is pretty much the same).  Pretty amazing how accurate these targets can be given SPY was trading around $202 when Tech Trader was calling for it.

504 unique view(s)

November 16th, 2015

November 16th, 2015 1:31:28 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Amazing day.  Tech Trader's RSI2 SPY signal was a day early but nonetheless we got our huge rally as to be expected.  The RSI2 SPY's 100% hitrate remains intact!

Originally it wanted to exit at $209 on the first day and then $207 today; we got pretty close but no dice.  Tomorrow it'll exit end of day above $205, so it's pretty much one day left for this trade.  It can still very well get its original target prices since it waits the day out.  We'll see.  This has admittedly been one of the bumpier signals this year.


And on a day like this, you can easily guess the sole driver of the majority of P&L today.
November 16th, 2015 12:26:01 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
A day early but Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon SPY signal killing it again.  Target has downgraded from 209 to 207 for today; will downgrade to 205 tomorrow if we don't head to 207 by today but things are getting crazy. Grin
500 unique view(s)

November 12th, 2015

November 12th, 2015 12:45:38 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Once-in-a-blue-moon SPY RSI2 signal back on to buy at the close.  Looks like Tech Trader is getting a better price as a result of waiting a couple days.  Target price of $208.8, which for whatever reason someone has a call option with that strike for tomorrow (am I being watched? Huh ).  

 Fate and Irony as usual.

November 12th, 2015 1:06:43 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And we're in!
And I won't be able to sleep at all I guess (it's midnight for market hours here).
478 unique view(s)

November 10th, 2015

November 10th, 2015 7:23:02 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY RSI2 ("bluemoon") signal is back again (pending end-of-day).  So much happening already only two weeks into the month.  Hope this holds into close.  Go figure it happens yet *again* when one of us is on a flight (me to Japan).  Literally, if you go back on every SPY signal, that has been the day of or after one of us was on flight.
November 10th, 2015 1:00:59 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ugh lost the SPY signal on the last minute bid-up of the market.  Once-in-a-blue-moon signal eludes us yet again.
461 unique view(s)

November 9th, 2015

November 9th, 2015 7:13:46 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Options Bets skyrocketing again, with HZNP up another 10%.  Have one thorn in our side from AEGR but largely offset by other gains.  

Overall a strong month so far relative to SPY selling off and accelerating that downtrend.  Our beta is now -.18 despite being 71% net long (132% long by 61% short).

November 9th, 2015 7:22:05 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very interesting - our bottom positions in XLU and HYG now going green while the market selling off a percent.  More short idiosyncratic names coming in on options activity in names like APD ($1.1M puts bought for December).
November 9th, 2015 12:18:59 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very interesting bet in IYR weekly puts.
IYR 11/13/2015 71x Puts, 16500@$0.1899
MV: $0.3M | $Not.: $22.2M | OI: 106 | 2.9% TotalOI
2.8% StockVolume | 17.9% OptionVolume
November 9th, 2015 12:21:47 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Also had XHB puts earlier this morning.  Wonder if they're related.
XHB 11/20/2015 35x Puts, 10000@$0.4
MV: $0.4M | $Not.: $13.4M | OI: 5465 | 3.3% TotalOI
75.4% StockVolume | 83.4% OptionVolume
November 9th, 2015 1:16:22 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
AEGR up 15% afterhours.  Biggest loser today about to become the biggest winner for tomorrow.

NVRO also just jumped 10% afterhours.  These options bets are just killing it on the earnings plays.
418 unique view(s)

November 6th, 2015

November 6th, 2015 8:34:54 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Options-based positions bringing in a lot of idiosyncratic alpha today from names like HZNP (25% up today, bought from call activity a few weeks ago), ENDP (6%), and a few others.  Tech Trader is slowly adding intraday bottom positions in XLU and other ETFs but very slowly (1 today, 1 a few days ago, etc).  Very nice to be holding steady for the first week of the month while SPY declines gradually.  Our beta since launch MTD is 0.2.
414 unique view(s)

November 4th, 2015

November 4th, 2015 9:12:19 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The options data feeding into Tech Trader is putting it on steroids.  Just now, AHS is up 15% afterhours on earnings beat.  Had pretty sizable gains this week on being long MDCO into earnings and short TASR into earnings as well.

Overall Tech Trader is ramping up exposures on both long and short side (120% long by 70% short now) after a very quiet August-October.  There is no particular sizable sector bet, with all sectors being under 10% of the total exposures.  The P&L chart itself looks like a cup-and-handle formation.





Note the performance chart looks a little different from prior posts because I've moved the options bets strategy back in (other charts had it discontinued April onwards).
457 unique view(s)

November 2nd, 2015

November 2nd, 2015 8:35:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Options-based names are neutral exposure (equal # long and short names) but up over 1.7% today during the market rally, both long and short sides.


The rest of the portfolio also doing great as usual, up 0.5%, with XLP having just gotten an intraday bottom.


XLP intraday:
461 unique view(s)

October 30th, 2015

October 30th, 2015 5:47:00 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
YRCW! First big win for Tech Trader with options orderflow information now turned back on.  Up 20% today with Tech Trader having bought earlier this week.  The call activity TT picked up a couple days ago was huge:
YRCW 12/18/2015 15x Calls, 10000@$1.8099 ($1.8M in calls)



Options-based trades from Tech Trader now up 3% as a portfolio since the beginning of the week.
457 unique view(s)

October 28th, 2015

October 28th, 2015 10:25:03 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back to life here, putting on more names both long and short.  Today up over 1% with the market slightly down.


Finally got the options data feed plugged back into TT as well, and that's just spinning in new trades like crazy the last couple days.  The options-based trades alone added 1% over the last couple days.
October 28th, 2015 12:06:32 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader equity-only is up over 2% today by end of day.  Exposures climbing back up at 120% by 50% short.
October 28th, 2015 1:20:11 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very exciting.  I don't think we've seen this increase in exposure since June. Even without the options based positions, Tech Trader has added about 40% net long in the past week.
480 unique view(s)

October 23rd, 2015

October 23rd, 2015 6:23:52 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Intraday bottom signals up across the board as usual.  IBB and XBI up 4%, XLV up 1%.  Sold out of 1-month options at 30-40% each.


487 unique view(s)

October 21st, 2015

October 21st, 2015 7:09:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Intraday bottoms flagging on all the healthcare ETFs XLV, XBI, IBB... Calls are super expensive though.  Tech Trader only bought a few way out in Dec/Jan.
XLV on Tech Trader
October 21st, 2015 10:48:03 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
XLV calls up 20% and XBI calls up 10% now. Grin
471 unique view(s)

October 20th, 2015

October 20th, 2015 9:42:24 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's short bet on TASR finally playing out after a few months.  Overall Tech Trader's exposure still a very tight 60% long by 30% short.  Very boring month so far. 

Up today about half a percent while market churns sideways.
463 unique view(s)

October 15th, 2015

October 15th, 2015 8:54:30 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Out of XLF at 0.7%, month-out calls at 20%.
Out of XLV at 0.7%, month-out calls at 8%.

463 unique view(s)

October 14th, 2015

October 14th, 2015 7:01:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back to life again after a boring few weeks. XLF and XLV intraday bottom signals fired, like first responders to a scene.
XLF on Tech Trader
XLV on Tech Trader
505 unique view(s)

September 30th, 2015

September 30th, 2015 3:22:34 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Slow way to end the quarter.  Tech Trader remaining very tight at 52% long by 22% short and selling out of its intraday bottom ETF positions on today's bounce.  Overall Tech Trader is up about 20% for the year while SPY is down 5%.
482 unique view(s)

September 28th, 2015

September 28th, 2015 7:20:11 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Up today despite market being down a percent and Tech Trader being 60% long vs 25% short still.  Thanks to shorts like GLNG and ISIS.


Can't wait till we get another daily bottom.  So ready for it. Grin
September 28th, 2015 12:02:11 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ended up closing down .7% but solely on the intraday bottom ETF signals which are starting to load up; it's small compared to SPY down about 2.5%.
531 unique view(s)

September 22nd, 2015

September 22nd, 2015 6:44:41 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Looking forward to seeing this sell off pick up and hopefully getting yet another rare SPY RSI2 signal.
September 22nd, 2015 11:42:37 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
My comprehensive SPY strategy (the first strategy I ever wrote) just traded again, covering its short and going long on SPY.  Again, no real idea if it'll be a 1-day trade or a 1-year trade (it can randomly switch from holding for 2 years to trading every day), but it's just interesting to see.  As mentioned previously, a lot of my abandoned strategies have been waking up this year.
553 unique view(s)

September 21st, 2015

September 21st, 2015 12:16:21 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
That was probably the easiest flip in a while.  After making a killing on the SPY short, the very next trading day has Tech Trader now making on the long side instead with the ETFs (XLK, XLB, DIA); also added IBB at pretty much the low of the day.  The market has been chopping between negative and positive all day, but Tech Trader's held a steady 50bps up all day regardless of the market movement.  Ironically the biggest winner today is its short on ISIS (the stock is down 8%).


What's most impressive is how quickly it flipped from neutral to net short to now net long in just the past week, each time getting the exact day the market turns, and it is now just grinding higher on each swing the market makes.  This is after being "asleep" for most of September with no signals.  SPY again shown in red for comparison.
573 unique view(s)

September 18th, 2015

September 18th, 2015 12:23:40 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader covered its RSI2 SPY trade today, out at $195.27 after shorting at about $200 on Wednesday, the exact top of the week (by closing price).  Equity netted 2%.  Weekly 200x puts made 95.3% from $2.32 to $4.53.  Month-out 200x puts made 45.5% from $4.20 to $6.11.

The once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal's 100% hitrate since 2008 track record remains intact.  As usual, the signal occurred while we were traveling and right before a major catalyst event (the Fed), but also as usual, the outcome of the actual event didn't matter.


Tech Trader is also now rotating into smaller intraday bottom-scalping long ETF positions (currently DIA, XLK, and XLB).  Exposure flipped in one day from 55% short by 40% long to now 65% long by 23% short.  Portfolio-level P&L finally stopped flat-lining and is going to new highs.  SPY again shown for comparison.


The hybrid equity+options portfolio that replaces ETF-timing trades with month-out options is up 6.5% for September so far with .5% drawdown.  Will be interesting to see if it can augment returns of the base strategies without increasing risk significantly, but we'll see with time.  Again, this is all fully automated.
September 18th, 2015 2:24:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Even with the dividend, SPY is down a dollar. Looks like the RSI2 SPY short signal is set here, but I'll be stuck on flight for most the morning. Bah
September 18th, 2015 2:44:35 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Make that SPY down $2 to $197 now after dividends. Weeklies will be up at least 50% here.  Man, this just always has to happen while on flight lol Going to have to just trust in Tech Trader here
595 unique view(s)

September 17th, 2015

September 17th, 2015 6:05:31 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
CVC up 16% on acquisition.  No matter what happens today with the Fed, Tech Trader is already up almost a percent and at new highs for the year.
September 17th, 2015 12:05:54 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Freaking awesome. SPY rallies briefly on Fed news before giving it all back and closing negative.  Tech Trader up a percent on both long names and the short SPY position. Of course, this can only happen while the whole team is out getting ice cream lol
SPY on Tech Trader
600 unique view(s)

September 16th, 2015

September 16th, 2015 7:05:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to churn higher - currently at new highs for the year now.  SPY (with divs) now included in the same chart for comparison.


What's more interesting are the abandoned strategies that I monitor in a separate book.  They're catching up to the official portfolio now.  The older strategies are actually net short now for the first time since July, which is pretty scary given that Fed is tomorrow.  It's also planning to add another 50 potential names or so on the short side off of SPY's little rally today due to being overbought near resistance, with heavy-weight ETF positions among them.