pftq's Stocks and Investing

Trading Guide

Tech Trader


Virtual Trading System

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Most Recent Trades
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Updates by Tech Trader, a fully autonomous trading system with no human intervention.
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761 unique view(s)

July 12th, 2016

July 12th, 2016 7:31:18 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader buying $TLT on pullback. Reminds me of when it was long both stock and dollar index and somehow both worked out.
TLT
July 12th, 2016 12:45:49 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Adding shorts in $KNL, $CVLT on put activity while taking gains in $AMBA and $NVDA.
July 12th, 2016 1:13:40 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
My model is short TLT and GLD. But good luck with your trade. Your hope that risk aversion comes back.


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July 12th, 2016 1:50:09 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Note that today Utilities finally started to sell off after holding up well for some time. Higher yields would likely dislocate Utilities the most since they are overbought, have weak fundamentals and pay relatively low dividend ( based on past history).


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July 12th, 2016 1:55:04 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Thanks. Our $TLT trade should be short term just for a bounce.  We are still about 70% long by 25% short excluding that.
775 unique view(s)

July 11th, 2016

July 11th, 2016 8:43:25 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Quiet day with no new trades; biggest winners in $MDCO, $PBR, $AMBA, and $NVDA. Up a percent with $SPY at half percent despite only being 80% long by 20% short.
July 11th, 2016 1:16:51 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$SPY at new highs despite Brexit. Funny part is we mis-interpreted TT's long bet to be stay, but it didn't matter as it ended up outperforming anyway.
July 11th, 2016 2:48:42 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The rebound from June 27th bottom is almost done. It peaks around 2-3 weeks from the bottom. I think the worst case scenario is equity and bond simultaneous sell off (risk parity unwind). Probably will be in September, while for now I like EM and beta.


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>
714 unique view(s)

July 9th, 2016

July 9th, 2016 8:43:55 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
For those curious about the technology, we have uploaded our talk at Hyperloop last month: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qcbzFyPtqM
740 unique view(s)

July 8th, 2016

July 8th, 2016 11:45:13 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Loading up on breakout longs again, this time $BMRN, $PLCM, $TJX, $WWAV (again). Was very long into Brexit but turned out not to matter as $SPY just broke year highs. Still only 80% long by 15% short right now but managing to capture full performance of the S&P even without being fully invested.  Sector exposures are still neutral though with no one sector more than 10% exposure.


July 8th, 2016 12:43:16 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
charset=utf-8

Thanks!  These post and Tech trader are really interesting!

>
746 unique view(s)

July 7th, 2016

July 7th, 2016 6:50:15 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$WWAV another name bought out after having lots of suspicious call buying, but again already out. Tech Trader is very tight this year, hopefully loosens up soon to stop missing these.
WWAV
July 7th, 2016 8:21:41 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$3M in $KRE Sept 39x calls just got bought. Another repeat name; seems like there are a lot of favorites this year.

$KRE 9/16/2016 39x Calls, 24580@$1.1499
MV: $2.8M | $Not.: $36.6M | OI: 10020 | 10.5% TotalOI
71.1% StockVolume | 99.1% OptionVolume
July 7th, 2016 12:21:22 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Shorting $WCG after seeing half a million dollars of puts bought for next week expiry - pretty aggressive.

WCG 7/15/2016 100x Puts, 4160@$1.25
MV: $0.5M | $Not.: $12.5M | OI: 1373 | 25.2% TotalOI
25.0% StockVolume | 75.3% OptionVolume
760 unique view(s)

July 2nd, 2016

July 2nd, 2016 9:16:01 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Up a bit over 1% for June vs $SPY down slightly despite being very long into Brexit. Exposures back to neutral at 70% long by 20% short with no real sector bet, though an old favorite $PBR has come back into play. Tech Trader just expecting continued breakout, but we as humans might see it as a cup-and-handle formation.


July 2nd, 2016 9:26:37 AM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
good month.
July 2nd, 2016 10:14:10 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
I was in Europe for two weeks and spoke to many  people from UK. At least 80% of them wanted to vote Leave. I quickly repositioned my portfolio and told my boss about it. Anyways very good month indeed, although I hear many people underperformed. It seems that most people were long with tail hedged but not many people were quick enough to remove hedges on Monday. Central banks are so powerful and quick nowadays, they don't tolerate even small dislocations.

When SPX declined by more than 1.5% and VIX fell on the same day, we witnessed a strong rebound in 8 out of 10 cases. On average, SPX was up 3% in 2 weeks after these rare occurrences. This time rebound was even stronger and market rotated into defensive sectors at the same time. It remains to be seen whether defensive trade gets unraveled next. NFP report next Friday is probably the main data point now.
 



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735 unique view(s)

June 30th, 2016

June 30th, 2016 7:05:10 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$LGF and $STRZA which we saw call buying in last month are acquiring each other.  Unfortunately already out of those, but just interesting to see how many of our signals often end up being M&A.
LGF
780 unique view(s)

June 27th, 2016

June 27th, 2016 6:40:11 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Wrong about Brexit, but positions like short $BTI turned out to hedge us a bit. Will see if Tech Trader's market timing trades start kicking in today to average down.
BTI
850 unique view(s)

June 22nd, 2016

June 22nd, 2016 11:49:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Long $HEDJ and short $BTI into Brexit on options activity, which might be the same bet against Britain leaving. Also long $YPF, more energy again.
HEDJ
893 unique view(s)

June 15th, 2016

June 15th, 2016 8:36:36 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader remaining very long here going into Fed and Brexit with exposures in Consumer and Technology neck to neck at 25%.  Again mostly in content oriented tech/consumer like $YELP, $LGF, $NVDA... almost wonder if this is a broader VR play.

907 unique view(s)

June 14th, 2016

June 14th, 2016 1:19:33 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Back into $ETP and $WWAV on call activity again. These seem to be favorites of Tech Trader.

995 unique view(s)

June 9th, 2016

June 9th, 2016 1:19:01 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Our short mattresses thesis is finally playing out. $MFRM down 15% after hours on earnings miss. $TPX should follow.
MFRM
1011 unique view(s)

June 8th, 2016

June 8th, 2016 1:04:14 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Picked up $WPG from the massive price spike at close on deal chatter. Spiked minutes before the news; go figure.
1054 unique view(s)

June 6th, 2016

June 6th, 2016 8:51:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader doing well across the board with $SPY breaking year highs after going fully invested long back in May, which at the time seemed counter-intuitive with all the bearish talk on the streets, hawkish Fed, and expectations of sell-in-May seasonal weakness.  Sector exposures are still largely long Consumer but as you can see in the chart below, it is very long everything else as well with next largest exposures being Technology and Energy.

As we noted back in May, Tech Trader has finally “woken up” and is fully invested net long across the board, with largest exposures in Consumer at 30%, followed by Technology and Energy but otherwise evenly distributed on most other sectors. It is most ironic but all the more impressive that Tech Trader has constantly gone against the conventional thinking this year by staying out of the market in January (against “January effect”), buying Energy in March (against those worried about oil), and most recently buying almost everything across the board (against “sell-in-May” and worries about Fed raising rates). That said, Tech Trader is also making returns primarily from stock selection and not general market movement (although the market has also started going back to highs). Some of the largest gains in the past month, for example, have been from shorting brick-and-mortar retail names like MFRM, TPX, and BBY (mattresses and Best Buy) as well as more specific catalyst names like GOGO (airline internet) and CXRX (failed healthcare deal). Many of the names on the long side are also very specific niches like smaller content providers (LGF, STRZA, YELP, LTRPA) and, in a way, the bigger companies in Silicon Valley (AAPL, INTU, AMBA, NVDA). Lastly, what’s interesting to observe is all these bets Tech Trader takes (even the Energy one which started in mid-March) all take months to play out, confirming out emphasis that Tech Trader is neither quant nor high-frequency but actually investing on a medium-to-long-term horizon. As we head into the Fed meeting in mid-June, we expect Tech Trader’s bet against everyone’s rate-hike fears will hold steady and surprise to the upside.

June 6th, 2016 1:30:22 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to get longer by buying $HUM and $RSG.  These and existing names all starting 2nd legs up in their uptrends.

June 6th, 2016 2:41:08 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Well done!

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1026 unique view(s)

June 3rd, 2016

June 3rd, 2016 6:34:34 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Another big win from shorting $GOGO, down as much as 17% this morning. Opened flat but probably just a gap-fill like $LGF which opened flat but went back to premarket prices by end of day.  Originally shorted last week due to unusual buying detected on the $10-strike puts.

GOGO 6/17/2016 10x Puts, 9000@$0.4
MV: $0.4M | $Not.: $2.6M | OI: 305 | 22.3% TotalOI
2.9% StockVolume | 47.2% OptionVolume

June 3rd, 2016 2:41:03 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Someone buying front-month $35x calls on $PODD only 2 weeks away. Maybe some event coming. We'll see.

PODD 6/17/2016 35x Calls, 3083@$0.4
MV: $0.1M | $Not.: $1.8M | OI: 1196 | 43.5% TotalOI
63.5% StockVolume | 58.6% OptionVolume

1050 unique view(s)

June 2nd, 2016

June 2nd, 2016 10:37:03 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Two big winners today in long $CIEN and short $CXRX, both from options activity. Heavy call buying yesterday in $CIEN before its earnings beat today and a large bearish risk reversal in $CXRX last week before the Blackstone takeover fell apart just now. All the news and talk around $CXRX was positive until just now, so whoever bought that risk reversal last week was betting against the crowd.


June 2nd, 2016 12:47:54 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Picked up $LTRPA after some heavy call buying - quiet stock with almost no chatter or movement. Very odd.
LTRPA 7/15/2016 25x Calls, 4900@$0.8999
MV: $0.4M | $Not.: $4.3M | OI: 11 | 3,712.1% TotalOI
36.0% StockVolume | 91.6% OptionVolume
1100 unique view(s)

May 27th, 2016

May 27th, 2016 12:47:51 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Last week, we noted Tech Trader was buying virtually everything across the board and seemed to be short the dollar, except that it strangely bought $UUP (the dollar ETF) as well. Ironically both $SPY and $UUP are now testing highs. Funny how things play out.

It seems like all the seasonal patterns are breaking down this year (January effect, sell in May, etc). Happy holiday weekend to everyone and looking forward to see what comes next.
UUP
1145 unique view(s)

May 26th, 2016

May 26th, 2016 5:44:30 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Had a question about our $AAPL trade - Tech Trader is looking at it as a longer term play with resistance at ~ $112. The system identified a lot of accumulation in the $90s and below (the "BOT" flags) and will likewise hold for medium-long term or until it sees similar magnitude in selling.  See chart below.
May 26th, 2016 6:50:26 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$LGF basically a free gain this morning opening at pre-earnings price of $19.76; was above $22 yesterday after hours.  Call buyers that got us into the stock in the first place are targeting $24 strike for June.
LGF 6/17/2016 24x Calls, 3400@$1.2999
MV: $0.4M | $Not.: $3.1M | OI: 1583 | 10.9% TotalOI
3.8% StockVolume | 54.5% OptionVolume
1139 unique view(s)

May 25th, 2016

May 25th, 2016 6:43:33 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Market back to all-time highs. Both longs and shorts working. $CSC up 30% on merger while $BBY dropped 7% despite beating earnings. Even the $UUP dollar bet is up, which is ironic. Still very long consumer, energy, and healthcare here while being short brick-and-mortar. For whatever reason, Tech Trader is short a bunch of brick-and-mortar mattress companies $MFRM and $TPX; looking forward to see how those turn out.


May 25th, 2016 6:53:33 AM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Well done

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>
May 25th, 2016 11:13:46 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Looks like Tech Trader is finally taking a bet on Europe with short $EWG based on July put buying.
EWG 7/15/2016 24x Puts, 20000@$0.4
MV: $0.8M | $Not.: $13.8M | OI: 16163 | 10.0% TotalOI
31.6% StockVolume | 98.7% OptionVolume
1222 unique view(s)

May 18th, 2016

May 18th, 2016 10:52:31 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Continuing to get longer Consumer and Energy here with $BAH and $ECA.

May 18th, 2016 12:03:52 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Buying $IAU (Gold) and $RSX on volume capitulation after they sold off on Fed minutes.
May 18th, 2016 2:23:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Shorted $BBY on $1M puts being bought. Tech Trader just hating on retails even though it's long all other consumers.