pftq's Stocks and Investing

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Tech Trader


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Updates by Tech Trader, a fully autonomous trading system with no human intervention.
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483 unique view(s)

November 12th, 2015

November 12th, 2015 2:06:43 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And we're in!
And I won't be able to sleep at all I guess (it's midnight for market hours here).
479 unique view(s)

November 10th, 2015

November 10th, 2015 8:23:02 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY RSI2 ("bluemoon") signal is back again (pending end-of-day).  So much happening already only two weeks into the month.  Hope this holds into close.  Go figure it happens yet *again* when one of us is on a flight (me to Japan).  Literally, if you go back on every SPY signal, that has been the day of or after one of us was on flight.
November 10th, 2015 2:00:59 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ugh lost the SPY signal on the last minute bid-up of the market.  Once-in-a-blue-moon signal eludes us yet again.
462 unique view(s)

November 9th, 2015

November 9th, 2015 8:13:46 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Options Bets skyrocketing again, with HZNP up another 10%.  Have one thorn in our side from AEGR but largely offset by other gains.  

Overall a strong month so far relative to SPY selling off and accelerating that downtrend.  Our beta is now -.18 despite being 71% net long (132% long by 61% short).

November 9th, 2015 8:22:05 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very interesting - our bottom positions in XLU and HYG now going green while the market selling off a percent.  More short idiosyncratic names coming in on options activity in names like APD ($1.1M puts bought for December).
November 9th, 2015 1:18:59 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very interesting bet in IYR weekly puts.
IYR 11/13/2015 71x Puts, 16500@$0.1899
MV: $0.3M | $Not.: $22.2M | OI: 106 | 2.9% TotalOI
2.8% StockVolume | 17.9% OptionVolume
November 9th, 2015 1:21:47 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Also had XHB puts earlier this morning.  Wonder if they're related.
XHB 11/20/2015 35x Puts, 10000@$0.4
MV: $0.4M | $Not.: $13.4M | OI: 5465 | 3.3% TotalOI
75.4% StockVolume | 83.4% OptionVolume
November 9th, 2015 2:16:22 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
AEGR up 15% afterhours.  Biggest loser today about to become the biggest winner for tomorrow.

NVRO also just jumped 10% afterhours.  These options bets are just killing it on the earnings plays.
424 unique view(s)

November 6th, 2015

November 6th, 2015 9:34:54 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Options-based positions bringing in a lot of idiosyncratic alpha today from names like HZNP (25% up today, bought from call activity a few weeks ago), ENDP (6%), and a few others.  Tech Trader is slowly adding intraday bottom positions in XLU and other ETFs but very slowly (1 today, 1 a few days ago, etc).  Very nice to be holding steady for the first week of the month while SPY declines gradually.  Our beta since launch MTD is 0.2.
418 unique view(s)

November 4th, 2015

November 4th, 2015 10:12:19 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The options data feeding into Tech Trader is putting it on steroids.  Just now, AHS is up 15% afterhours on earnings beat.  Had pretty sizable gains this week on being long MDCO into earnings and short TASR into earnings as well.

Overall Tech Trader is ramping up exposures on both long and short side (120% long by 70% short now) after a very quiet August-October.  There is no particular sizable sector bet, with all sectors being under 10% of the total exposures.  The P&L chart itself looks like a cup-and-handle formation.





Note the performance chart looks a little different from prior posts because I've moved the options bets strategy back in (other charts had it discontinued April onwards).
458 unique view(s)

November 2nd, 2015

November 2nd, 2015 9:35:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Options-based names are neutral exposure (equal # long and short names) but up over 1.7% today during the market rally, both long and short sides.


The rest of the portfolio also doing great as usual, up 0.5%, with XLP having just gotten an intraday bottom.


XLP intraday:
466 unique view(s)

October 30th, 2015

October 30th, 2015 6:47:00 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
YRCW! First big win for Tech Trader with options orderflow information now turned back on.  Up 20% today with Tech Trader having bought earlier this week.  The call activity TT picked up a couple days ago was huge:
YRCW 12/18/2015 15x Calls, 10000@$1.8099 ($1.8M in calls)



Options-based trades from Tech Trader now up 3% as a portfolio since the beginning of the week.
461 unique view(s)

October 28th, 2015

October 28th, 2015 11:25:03 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back to life here, putting on more names both long and short.  Today up over 1% with the market slightly down.


Finally got the options data feed plugged back into TT as well, and that's just spinning in new trades like crazy the last couple days.  The options-based trades alone added 1% over the last couple days.
October 28th, 2015 1:06:32 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader equity-only is up over 2% today by end of day.  Exposures climbing back up at 120% by 50% short.
October 28th, 2015 2:20:11 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Very exciting.  I don't think we've seen this increase in exposure since June. Even without the options based positions, Tech Trader has added about 40% net long in the past week.
481 unique view(s)

October 23rd, 2015

October 23rd, 2015 7:23:52 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Intraday bottom signals up across the board as usual.  IBB and XBI up 4%, XLV up 1%.  Sold out of 1-month options at 30-40% each.


489 unique view(s)

October 21st, 2015

October 21st, 2015 8:09:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Intraday bottoms flagging on all the healthcare ETFs XLV, XBI, IBB... Calls are super expensive though.  Tech Trader only bought a few way out in Dec/Jan.
XLV on Tech Trader
October 21st, 2015 11:48:03 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
XLV calls up 20% and XBI calls up 10% now. Grin
472 unique view(s)

October 20th, 2015

October 20th, 2015 10:42:24 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's short bet on TASR finally playing out after a few months.  Overall Tech Trader's exposure still a very tight 60% long by 30% short.  Very boring month so far. 

Up today about half a percent while market churns sideways.
464 unique view(s)

October 15th, 2015

October 15th, 2015 9:54:30 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Out of XLF at 0.7%, month-out calls at 20%.
Out of XLV at 0.7%, month-out calls at 8%.

467 unique view(s)

October 14th, 2015

October 14th, 2015 8:01:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back to life again after a boring few weeks. XLF and XLV intraday bottom signals fired, like first responders to a scene.
XLF on Tech Trader
XLV on Tech Trader
507 unique view(s)

September 30th, 2015

September 30th, 2015 4:22:34 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Slow way to end the quarter.  Tech Trader remaining very tight at 52% long by 22% short and selling out of its intraday bottom ETF positions on today's bounce.  Overall Tech Trader is up about 20% for the year while SPY is down 5%.
482 unique view(s)

September 28th, 2015

September 28th, 2015 8:20:11 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Up today despite market being down a percent and Tech Trader being 60% long vs 25% short still.  Thanks to shorts like GLNG and ISIS.


Can't wait till we get another daily bottom.  So ready for it. Grin
September 28th, 2015 1:02:11 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ended up closing down .7% but solely on the intraday bottom ETF signals which are starting to load up; it's small compared to SPY down about 2.5%.
532 unique view(s)

September 22nd, 2015

September 22nd, 2015 7:44:41 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Looking forward to seeing this sell off pick up and hopefully getting yet another rare SPY RSI2 signal.
September 22nd, 2015 12:42:37 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
My comprehensive SPY strategy (the first strategy I ever wrote) just traded again, covering its short and going long on SPY.  Again, no real idea if it'll be a 1-day trade or a 1-year trade (it can randomly switch from holding for 2 years to trading every day), but it's just interesting to see.  As mentioned previously, a lot of my abandoned strategies have been waking up this year.
557 unique view(s)

September 21st, 2015

September 21st, 2015 1:16:21 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
That was probably the easiest flip in a while.  After making a killing on the SPY short, the very next trading day has Tech Trader now making on the long side instead with the ETFs (XLK, XLB, DIA); also added IBB at pretty much the low of the day.  The market has been chopping between negative and positive all day, but Tech Trader's held a steady 50bps up all day regardless of the market movement.  Ironically the biggest winner today is its short on ISIS (the stock is down 8%).


What's most impressive is how quickly it flipped from neutral to net short to now net long in just the past week, each time getting the exact day the market turns, and it is now just grinding higher on each swing the market makes.  This is after being "asleep" for most of September with no signals.  SPY again shown in red for comparison.
573 unique view(s)

September 18th, 2015

September 18th, 2015 1:23:40 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader covered its RSI2 SPY trade today, out at $195.27 after shorting at about $200 on Wednesday, the exact top of the week (by closing price).  Equity netted 2%.  Weekly 200x puts made 95.3% from $2.32 to $4.53.  Month-out 200x puts made 45.5% from $4.20 to $6.11.

The once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal's 100% hitrate since 2008 track record remains intact.  As usual, the signal occurred while we were traveling and right before a major catalyst event (the Fed), but also as usual, the outcome of the actual event didn't matter.


Tech Trader is also now rotating into smaller intraday bottom-scalping long ETF positions (currently DIA, XLK, and XLB).  Exposure flipped in one day from 55% short by 40% long to now 65% long by 23% short.  Portfolio-level P&L finally stopped flat-lining and is going to new highs.  SPY again shown for comparison.


The hybrid equity+options portfolio that replaces ETF-timing trades with month-out options is up 6.5% for September so far with .5% drawdown.  Will be interesting to see if it can augment returns of the base strategies without increasing risk significantly, but we'll see with time.  Again, this is all fully automated.
September 18th, 2015 3:24:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Even with the dividend, SPY is down a dollar. Looks like the RSI2 SPY short signal is set here, but I'll be stuck on flight for most the morning. Bah
September 18th, 2015 3:44:35 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Make that SPY down $2 to $197 now after dividends. Weeklies will be up at least 50% here.  Man, this just always has to happen while on flight lol Going to have to just trust in Tech Trader here
595 unique view(s)

September 17th, 2015

September 17th, 2015 7:05:31 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
CVC up 16% on acquisition.  No matter what happens today with the Fed, Tech Trader is already up almost a percent and at new highs for the year.
September 17th, 2015 1:05:54 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Freaking awesome. SPY rallies briefly on Fed news before giving it all back and closing negative.  Tech Trader up a percent on both long names and the short SPY position. Of course, this can only happen while the whole team is out getting ice cream lol
SPY on Tech Trader
600 unique view(s)

September 16th, 2015

September 16th, 2015 8:05:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to churn higher - currently at new highs for the year now.  SPY (with divs) now included in the same chart for comparison.


What's more interesting are the abandoned strategies that I monitor in a separate book.  They're catching up to the official portfolio now.  The older strategies are actually net short now for the first time since July, which is pretty scary given that Fed is tomorrow.  It's also planning to add another 50 potential names or so on the short side off of SPY's little rally today due to being overbought near resistance, with heavy-weight ETF positions among them.

September 16th, 2015 10:24:44 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Now Tech Trader is thinking about shorting virtually every ETF at the end of day.  Meanwhile I'm literally on a plane the next two mornings.
September 16th, 2015 9:43:21 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY just showed up as a potential short trade on my RSI2 SPY signal (the big one).  Ugh, why does it always have to be near such big catalyst events, right before Fed day?! Sad

No signals for weeks and suddenly it wants to take a huge short bet.  I hope it cancels before end of day lol
September 16th, 2015 1:06:53 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And we're in... rare RSI2 SPY signal is short the day before probably the year's most anticipated Fed announcement.  This is like the feeling you get when you're so excited for a rollercoaster until you're actually looking down from the top of the hill... (and it doesn't help that we'll be out on a flight during tomorrow morning! Sad )
September 16th, 2015 9:49:37 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Why are we always out traveling when all this happens?? <_<
September 16th, 2015 9:10:26 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
CVC up 16% after hours on acquisition deal. This is like the 5th trade this year Tech Trader got that jumped 15% overnight, with the last one being MDCO.  Another great example of the idiosyncratic alpha Tech Trader captures that is more characteristic of fundamental/technical guys than quants. Should be nice padding for the big day tomorrow.
669 unique view(s)

September 10th, 2015

September 10th, 2015 2:37:51 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
lol this will change once we start traveling next week. Market goes nuts as soon as our backs are turned.
675 unique view(s)

September 9th, 2015

September 9th, 2015 12:48:00 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Pretty hilariously awesome day.  SPY opens up a percent before selling off and ending up down a percent.  Tech Trader opens flat as usual but then actually gains half a percent as the market sells off, despite being net long at 30% long x 20% short.  As usual, the most exciting days happen when one of us is out traveling (me this time); had the foresight this time to blindly throw on a few SPY weekly 201 puts before boarding, which are already up 100%.  Getting pretty good at mastering this Fate and Irony stuff.  Can't wait to see what happens when all 3 of us are out traveling on Fed Day. Grin


Meanwhile SPY... flopping like a dead fish as usual these past weeks.