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906 unique view(s)

September 7th, 2016

September 7th, 2016 11:57:38 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to get more neutral, taking gains on $VRX, $ZAYO, and shorting $MCHI. Total exposure now 61% long by 25% short.
September 7th, 2016 1:22:43 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tomorrow is ECB. Expectations are pretty high from equity guys. Bonds are much less optimistic. Given Fed meeting is less of an event (weak U.S. Macro data likely removed Sept hike from the table), tomorrow's ECB is very important. BOJ is not until end of the month.

It is incredible how equities diverged from macro this month. CBs meetings drive price discovery and all market does is re-positioning for CB meetings. In the meantime, economic growth is deteriorating as monetary stimulus is failing to spur growth and inflation. I don't think CBs are ready to give up, hence bond yields are not going to rise and lower growth will have to get priced in equities.


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996 unique view(s)

September 2nd, 2016

September 2nd, 2016 12:21:17 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to unload old positions $AMD, $CSC, $GES, $WWAV. Portfolio now 70% long by 25% short.  Max exposure in any sector back down to the 10% level (no longer biased to tech).  New names added include $STM and $TIVO, which like $POT / $MOS / $CHS are just starting to move.

September 2nd, 2016 5:36:26 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Market was relieved by weak NFP but it was a wrong reaction. The market should be worried about weak private payrolls. We have service ISM on 6th which would also most likely disappoint.

I see probability of hike at 30% for September with weak economic data and can't really get excited about risk. The probability should be zero like it was back in June post Brexit. Now I want to be short and defensive. Fed would likely try to talk  up hike damaging risk further, ECB would likely disappoint, and Kuroda would be a clown on 4th. I think this market is too dangerous to be long especially high beta but maybe this is why those who are long would get rewarded.
  I am upset about calling weak job report correctly  and not making much money on the right call because of fake reaction today. Why did curve steepen? Ridiculous.Momentum factor only gained 0.17% today also because Oil was up for some stupid reason (Putin opened his mouth). Anyways next week will be fun. Hopefully roller coaster.


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1017 unique view(s)

September 1st, 2016

September 1st, 2016 11:44:55 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Getting more neutral with shorts in $MLHR, $IWD and long $EGO (gold co). Total exposure now 76% long by 25% short but the longs are names like $MOS, $POT, etc.


September 1st, 2016 11:57:32 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Also just added $PAY as a potential breakout.
963 unique view(s)

August 31st, 2016

August 31st, 2016 7:23:05 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
IWM short is starting to work after very disappointing Oil report gave people reason to sell. But looking at other data today, nothing to get excited about besides ADP jobs report. Strong jobs with weaker economy is the trap Fed is in.
 
TLT continues to sell off too, which is not consistent with suggests a tough day for risk parity funds. If Equity vol rises now, these guys would indiscriminately sell equities. I would be much less concerned if we had a classical risk off: equities down and bonds up.

EWZ opened up and now down 1.54%.




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August 31st, 2016 5:36:47 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Just saw Chinese PMI beat. Not good for risk. Tomorrow US ISM is the biggest data point at 7am PST.


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962 unique view(s)

August 30th, 2016

August 30th, 2016 1:32:55 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader picked up $MOS amid all the chatter on $POT and $AGU merger.
August 30th, 2016 1:33:11 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Oil and USD are working. Bond yields also fell since Friday. However bid for equities remains strong. Equities are diverging from macro: reinforces my short risk recommendation. NFP this Friday will be huge! Last chance to sell before we get the most important data point for Fed. If NFP prints above 220k jobs, I expect a hike in September. While U.S can stomach another hike, can the rest of the world with Oil still below 50 and deflation? I think we are going to see some fireworks soon.



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912 unique view(s)

August 26th, 2016

August 26th, 2016 6:33:15 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And just as Tech Trader expected, $SPY and $QQQ rally on Yellen speaking; taking gains of over half a percent each.

August 26th, 2016 12:01:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yeah $SPY is down only slightly and $QQQ actually is positive while defensive sector $XLU is down over 2%. It looks like people are actually rotating out of defensive into risk. Tech Trader meanwhile taking a lot off the table on both sides and getting more neutral, now about 67% long by 25% short (33% cash), with technology remaining the biggest exposure at 25%.
August 26th, 2016 8:41:20 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
I am expecting risk off next week. I am disappointed today with weak risk off reaction but next week would be ugly. "Bloody Monday"...


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August 26th, 2016 9:43:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Doesn't seem like much risk-off at all today. Defensive sectors like $XLU and $XLP are actually selling off hardest while everything else is holding up.
August 26th, 2016 12:46:56 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Surprised TT hasn't bought into financials?
August 26th, 2016 4:20:54 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yes  you are right. I expected Fed to be dovish but they came out hawkish, which caused repositioning and created this illusion of 'risk on'. High beta out performed low beta by 0.9% today and Momentum lost 0.35%. This is good for today but worse for next few weeks. I think we get a massive reversal and you want to own Utes and Staples. I am amazed how oil held up relative to USD move. It might be up for geopolitical reasons or it a fake reaction. Let's see on Monday. Next week will be interesting. I stayed defensive and even added. Good luck


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August 26th, 2016 4:25:31 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
By the way look at EWZ and EEM. I was short since last week, as well as XBI. These are early signs of risk off. I am short IWM too which is flat since I shorted it but it does look weak and ready to break down soon. It is just my opinion.


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August 26th, 2016 4:35:15 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
I recommend to be neutral or short Oil and energy stocks. Next Friday is NFP, which is expected to be strong, and if it is strong they could hike. USD would likely rally next week (normally the case after hawkish Fed) and Oil inventories in US are now turning up. Chinese demand is likely going to weaken since they are consuming less and exporting more. Geopolitical risk (Yemen threat for Saudi oil) keeps oil up which means it is overvalued relative to fundamentals.

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793 unique view(s)

August 25th, 2016

August 25th, 2016 6:04:29 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader dip buying a bunch of ETFs $SPY, $QQQ, $XBI before Fed, which seems to be the pattern now.
SPY on Tech Trader
August 25th, 2016 12:46:03 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Typical risk off reaction before Yellen develops as expected. I expect it gets more ugly.


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730 unique view(s)

August 22nd, 2016

August 22nd, 2016 8:20:40 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's portfolio would appear bullish/pro-risk, but we are gaining each day even when the market is down. Biggest sector exposure remains Technology at 25%. However, biggest P&L is coming from Energy and biggest single name winner this month $CPE (Energy), followed by $YELP (Consumer). Oddly enough, $VRX is quickly becoming a big winner as well despite our horrible entry; both today and most of last week it was the biggest contributor in P&L on a daily basis.

August 22nd, 2016 7:52:44 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Risk off is playing out so far. EWZ is leading the pack lower. IWM is holding for its life but I see pockets of risk giving up.
TLT is nicely rebounding.


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August 22nd, 2016 10:10:20 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Equities are still pro-risk. Cyclical rotation continues despite weakness in Oil. I think most people are short indices while not many are short individual equities. This should end badly.


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August 22nd, 2016 3:36:53 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Thanks Stefan.  Never pulled yhe trigger.


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737 unique view(s)

August 19th, 2016

August 19th, 2016 12:47:09 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Nice TT.  What did TT do with Hain?did it hold or dump?  Thanks for the updates.  I always pay attention to your posts!


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August 19th, 2016 12:56:33 PM PST
Posted by TimothyB | #
TimothyB (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Thanks Stefan, yeah might be a good time for a trade.


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August 19th, 2016 1:58:53 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Good job TT! It is a tough month for hedge funds.

I remain bearish for next week. My favorite shorts are IWM and EWZ. Expect a delayed risk off reaction next week. My favorite style is Price Momentum now. Its volatility fell 50% over past few weeks. We just need oil down and it works out. European banks are pulling back, Energy stocks sold off today, and bond yields are rising.





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723 unique view(s)

August 17th, 2016

August 17th, 2016 7:37:17 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader buying the dip into Fed with $EEM, $XLK, $XLY, and $XHB in addition to the $XLU and $XLP from yesterday.


August 17th, 2016 9:24:41 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Many ETFs already up sharply since TT's call. $XLU now up almost 1% after starting down this morning.
August 17th, 2016 11:47:49 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
I have positioned defensively on Monday. xLU would work for next 5-10 days. I am negative on IWM.


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731 unique view(s)

August 16th, 2016

August 16th, 2016 9:15:42 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to position more cautiously with shorts in $VRSN, $AEE and short term buys in $XLU, $XLP.  Gains in names like $PBR, $STM, and $RL also being taken.
VRSN
787 unique view(s)

August 12th, 2016

August 12th, 2016 5:45:33 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$PBR up 3% on earnings miss, prob oil. $SOCL finally down. TT also 35% long tech. So long tech, short social media.

August 12th, 2016 7:40:38 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
More bottom picking, this time in $FE (utility/energy) based on options call activity for October.

FE 10/21/2016 34x Calls, 11050@$0.8
MV: $0.9M | $Not.: $14.9M | OI: 5121 | 18.5% TotalOI
21.6% StockVolume | 95.8% OptionVolume
August 12th, 2016 12:01:28 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Also added $HAIN as another potential breakout.
787 unique view(s)

August 11th, 2016

August 11th, 2016 12:18:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Picked up $AINV near the close as another potential bullish breakout.
796 unique view(s)

August 9th, 2016

August 9th, 2016 11:54:45 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader doing some healthcare bottom-picking today and buying $VRX on volume capitulation.  Great month so far for stock selection with winners like $RAX, $YELP, $CPE.
August 9th, 2016 12:12:06 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$YELP up an additional 5% after hours coincidentally.
741 unique view(s)

August 4th, 2016

August 4th, 2016 10:29:15 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Pretty sizable call buy in $SYMC today, about $1.3M in Jan 24x calls.
SYMC 1/20/2017 24x Calls, 30000@$0.4199
MV: $1.3M | $Not.: $14.0M | OI: 61 | 24.2% TotalOI
13.7% StockVolume | 72.2% OptionVolume
August 4th, 2016 11:48:02 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Do you see any big put spread trades in XLP over past few weeks? Thanks!

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August 4th, 2016 11:51:59 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
None that we can see are notable.