pftq's Stocks and Investing

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Tech Trader


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1222 unique view(s)

May 18th, 2016

May 18th, 2016 10:52:31 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Continuing to get longer Consumer and Energy here with $BAH and $ECA.

May 18th, 2016 12:03:52 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Buying $IAU (Gold) and $RSX on volume capitulation after they sold off on Fed minutes.
May 18th, 2016 2:23:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Shorted $BBY on $1M puts being bought. Tech Trader just hating on retails even though it's long all other consumers.
May 18th, 2016 6:39:15 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tough bet after today's hawkish FOMC minutes. I hope your UUP bet is big enough to offset "short dollar" longs, in case dollar strength continues. Good luck!

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1218 unique view(s)

May 17th, 2016

May 17th, 2016 5:46:30 AM PST
Posted by rppp | #
rppp (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
What does Techtrader say about George Soros’ big short bet against SPY?
May 17th, 2016 7:15:13 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The weird thing is we're up with the market down despite our 90% long by
30% short exposure, so it's hard to interpret what that means as in terms
of where S&P500 is going.  I would say it almost seems Tech Trader is
agnostic and only cares about Energy, Healthcare, Tech, Consumer here (even
then, it's very idiosyncratic since it's actually also short specific areas
like brick-and-mortor retail).
May 17th, 2016 7:39:59 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Our beta for the year is 0.2 - effectively uncorrelated to the market.
May 17th, 2016 8:36:36 AM PST
Posted by rppp | #
rppp (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Exactly why I asked. The chatter in the news media is that Soros has a “big put bet” However Techtrader doesn’t read news which in this case is great.
May 17th, 2016 10:44:52 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
We have a massive 'risk on' rally today (high beta is outperforming low
beta by over 2%). USD is down after a 10-day rally. You must have a high
exposure to Oil and Beta which is saving you today.
1148 unique view(s)

May 16th, 2016

May 16th, 2016 7:34:31 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$AAPL flagging a bottom as well as being near multi-year-support. Older less-used algorithm but interesting to note nonetheless.
1159 unique view(s)

May 13th, 2016

May 13th, 2016 8:23:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader continuing to get longer here, almost 100% long by 30% short. Biggest bets are Consumer, Energy, and then Healthcare. Most interesting names in the last few days are $MON, $STRZA, and $EGRX, which are getting increased buying activity in both stock and options after the initial signals.  Tech Trader overall is getting much more idiosyncratic in its bets with long Consumer names like $YELP and $WWAV but also short Consumer names like $MFRM and $DNKN.





May 13th, 2016 5:28:43 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
As I expected, Chinese loan data came out well below consensus. Credit conditions are tightening. Not good for risk.

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1129 unique view(s)

May 11th, 2016

May 11th, 2016 7:59:12 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's been gradually rotating back into Energy this week: $PBR, $EQT, $FTI, $SM
Looks like it was a play into the oil report today, which caused the energy sector to flip from negative to positive this morning.

Tech Trader overall (if you look at the chart from yesterday) is now mainly long Energy, Consumer, and Healthcare.  Again, exposures are at year highs now with longs at 96% and shorts at 33%.

$PBR and $EQT are old favorites of Tech Trader; been in and out of those since March.  $FTI and $SM are new ones picked up from risk reversal activity in the options market.


May 11th, 2016 8:04:15 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Chinese data is not out yet. The oil number is bullish but not clear how much of the draw is due to wildfires in Canada. Let's see if Oil holds its gains into close.


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1134 unique view(s)

May 10th, 2016

May 10th, 2016 8:58:32 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Out of $SPY now but still very long with $PAH, $WWAV, $EGRX, and many other names finally playing out after months of consolidation.  Tech Trader remains 90% long by 30% short, the most invested we've been all year since going 60% cash in November.  I expect this will continue into the end of Q2 with many people who expect seasonal weakness to be disappointed.  If you look at the charts below, many names we have are just now starting to break to the upside.



May 10th, 2016 9:28:23 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Good luck. Tomorrow's Oil report and Chinese data later this week would set up the tone. I expect loan data from China to be weak. Today buyback window is reopened, so we have incremental buying from fundamental insensitive players.


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1111 unique view(s)

May 7th, 2016

May 7th, 2016 2:28:33 AM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Nice call on yelp

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May 7th, 2016 11:02:11 AM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Good luck. Very important trade data out of China would be released this weekend. If exports miss, I expect continuation of weakness for the rest of the month. And then we have June- very weak seasonal.
Second, USD move last week was quite extreme, seasonality for USD in May is very bullish, so likely we would see more strength in USD, which could keep market rebounds contained.





 

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May 7th, 2016 11:08:45 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Expecting a selloff on Monday. See the link below


http://www.wsj.com/articles/weak-demand-dents-chinas-exports-1462685934


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950 unique view(s)

May 6th, 2016

May 7th, 2016 1:44:11 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Getting pretty long... Bought $YELP, $MDCO, and oddly enough $HLF. Ackman not going to like us...

$YELP and $HLF are high volume breakouts, while $MDCO is getting a lot of call buying today.


894 unique view(s)

May 3rd, 2016

May 3rd, 2016 1:42:53 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Did you get another Buy signal? Or more pain tomorrow?


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May 3rd, 2016 2:50:39 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
No signals today, just holding.
May 3rd, 2016 3:59:29 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tomorrow European and Chinese services PMIs are going to be released which could impact USD. DoE oil report would probably be a market mover too. Gasoline inventory component would be important as well as rate of production decline. USD moved a lot today and weaker international data along with weak Oil report could add to further USD strength causing more weakness for equities. Stronger PMI data would weaken USD and cause a rebound in equities.

Good luck.



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May 3rd, 2016 4:05:02 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Great color and information, thanks.
858 unique view(s)

May 2nd, 2016

May 2nd, 2016 12:30:53 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon $SPY signal keeps its 100% hitrate intact yet again. $SPY at $208 from $206.6; current target price is $208.2, which isn't far off.  Probably an exit at end of day or tomorrow. The signal normally only happens a few times a year, yet this is our third one a few months into 2016.  Very interesting times.  So unreal every time we get this signal, but it never fails (knock on wood).

May 2nd, 2016 2:19:43 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Nice! It did rally despite negative Chinese data and weak Oil. Good job!


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May 2nd, 2016 3:31:21 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Great job! Love this signal!

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904 unique view(s)

April 29th, 2016

April 29th, 2016 7:35:57 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Intraday bottom signals coming back to life, buying a swath of ETFs $SPY, $IWM, $XLI, $SMH... If we stay here till close we might also get our once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 $SPY signal, which has a 100% hitrate and only triggers a few times a year (although it's already triggered 3 times this year!).
April 29th, 2016 1:29:10 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Will,
Did you get RSI2 buy on SPY?
Thanks!

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April 29th, 2016 1:31:48 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The once-in-a-blue-moon RSI $SPY buy signal triggered at $206.60. The big one is a go!
Again, this signal only happens a few times a year and has a 100% hitrate since inception.
April 29th, 2016 6:45:36 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$MNST up 13% after all the unusual volume spikes Tech Trader kept flagging last week.
April 29th, 2016 7:05:44 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of $PBR finally for 30%, the last of the Brazil trade from last month.
April 29th, 2016 11:43:11 AM PST
Posted by max.podlone | #
max.podlone (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
A picnic? During market hours? Sheesh…
April 29th, 2016 12:05:46 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Good luck with signals. Macro funds are throwing everything today to contain a selloff. They are buying oil to have market supported. Let's see what happens on Monday!

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April 29th, 2016 1:50:16 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Cool! Good luck. Chinese PMI data is out on Saturday and estimated Saudi oil production data will be released.



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808 unique view(s)

April 27th, 2016

April 27th, 2016 9:06:15 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$EQT (energy) finally really moving up after a $1M Sept. 75x risk reversal was bought last month. $PBR (Brazil) also continuing higher as usual. It's almost like Tech Trader chose to keep only its best names during its rotation out of the Brazil/Energy trade.  On a side note, some of the older RSI2 strategies are calling a short-term bottom to $IBB, so we might see the Biotech/Healthcare trade pick up again as well, which Tech Trader started entering the last few weeks.  It's a constant ebb and flow between Energy names performing for us and then Biotech names performing for us.

EQT 9/16/2016 75x Calls, 4000@$2.5999
MV: $1.0M | $Not.: $7.2M | OI: 37 | 41.5% TotalOI
50.5% StockVolume | 49.8% OptionVolume
Leg: EQT 9/16/2016 50x Puts, 4000 on OI of 57


April 27th, 2016 9:26:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Someone bought $5M in June 50x puts on $DISH. Pretty massive size especially given the almost non-existent OI across most the options on this stock.  As mentioned before, it's interesting that Tech Trader seems to almost only buy energy and healthcare names while broadly shorting most everything else.

DISH 6/17/2016 50x Puts, 13000@$2.45
MV: $3.2M | $Not.: $30.3M | OI: 6303 | 17.6% TotalOI
56.4% StockVolume | 55.1% OptionVolume

747 unique view(s)

April 26th, 2016

April 26th, 2016 6:46:20 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Doing well short $WDR today (down 10% after earnings). Held since 2 weeks ago on  put buying at $20 strike, which we are now near.

WDR 5/20/2016 20x Puts, 3380@$0.9499
MV: $0.3M | $Not.: $2.1M | OI: 37 | 107.8% TotalOI
29.3% StockVolume | 69.8% OptionVolume

April 26th, 2016 9:02:30 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The one Brazil stock $PBR still being held is up the most. We're making more from foreign ADRs and ETFs than US lately.  Other names include $SAN, $RIO, $RSX, $DXJ... We keep getting asked to explore markets outside the US, but it seems like we get a fair amount of global exposure already.

April 26th, 2016 9:53:52 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yet another large call buying in $OMF, this time 33 strike. Someone is constantly betting this is going to recover from the lows.  This is probably the 3rd of 4th signal we've gotten to buy this stock.

OMF 5/20/2016 33x Calls, 2100@$1.5
MV: $0.3M | $Not.: $2.9M | OI: 134 | 17.7% TotalOI
30.0% StockVolume | 55.1% OptionVolume