Someone buying front-month $35x calls on $PODD only 2 weeks away. Maybe some event coming. We'll see.

PODD 6/17/2016 35x Calls, 3083@$0.4
MV: $0.1M | $Not.: $1.8M | OI: 1196 | 43.5% TotalOI
63.5% StockVolume | 58.6% OptionVolume

Two big winners today in long $CIEN and short $CXRX, both from options activity. Heavy call buying yesterday in $CIEN before its earnings beat today and a large bearish risk reversal in $CXRX last week before the Blackstone takeover fell apart just now. All the news and talk around $CXRX was positive until just now, so whoever bought that risk reversal last week was betting against the crowd.

Last week, we noted Tech Trader was buying virtually everything across the board and seemed to be short the dollar, except that it strangely bought $UUP (the dollar ETF) as well. Ironically both $SPY and $UUP are now testing highs. Funny how things play out.

It seems like all the seasonal patterns are breaking down this year (January effect, sell in May, etc). Happy holiday weekend to everyone and looking forward to see what comes next.

Had a question about our $AAPL trade - Tech Trader is looking at it as a longer term play with resistance at ~ $112. The system identified a lot of accumulation in the $90s and below (the "BOT" flags) and will likewise hold for medium-long term or until it sees similar magnitude in selling.  See chart below.

Market back to all-time highs. Both longs and shorts working. $CSC up 30% on merger while $BBY dropped 7% despite beating earnings. Even the $UUP dollar bet is up, which is ironic. Still very long consumer, energy, and healthcare here while being short brick-and-mortar. For whatever reason, Tech Trader is short a bunch of brick-and-mortar mattress companies $MFRM and $TPX; looking forward to see how those turn out.

Continuing to get longer Consumer and Energy here with $BAH and $ECA.

What does Techtrader say about George Soros’ big short bet against SPY?

$AAPL flagging a bottom as well as being near multi-year-support. Older less-used algorithm but interesting to note nonetheless.

Tech Trader continuing to get longer here, almost 100% long by 30% short. Biggest bets are Consumer, Energy, and then Healthcare. Most interesting names in the last few days are $MON, $STRZA, and $EGRX, which are getting increased buying activity in both stock and options after the initial signals.  Tech Trader overall is getting much more idiosyncratic in its bets with long Consumer names like $YELP and $WWAV but also short Consumer names like $MFRM and $DNKN.

Tech Trader's been gradually rotating back into Energy this week: $PBR, $EQT, $FTI, $SM
Looks like it was a play into the oil report today, which caused the energy sector to flip from negative to positive this morning.

Tech Trader overall (if you look at the chart from yesterday) is now mainly long Energy, Consumer, and Healthcare.  Again, exposures are at year highs now with longs at 96% and shorts at 33%.

$PBR and $EQT are old favorites of Tech Trader; been in and out of those since March.  $FTI and $SM are new ones picked up from risk reversal activity in the options market.

Out of $SPY now but still very long with $PAH, $WWAV, $EGRX, and many other names finally playing out after months of consolidation.  Tech Trader remains 90% long by 30% short, the most invested we've been all year since going 60% cash in November.  I expect this will continue into the end of Q2 with many people who expect seasonal weakness to be disappointed.  If you look at the charts below, many names we have are just now starting to break to the upside.

Nice call on yelp

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Good luck. Very important trade data out of China would be released this weekend. If exports miss, I expect continuation of weakness for the rest of the month. And then we have June- very weak seasonal.
Second, USD move last week was quite extreme, seasonality for USD in May is very bullish, so likely we would see more strength in USD, which could keep market rebounds contained.





 

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Getting pretty long... Bought $YELP, $MDCO, and oddly enough $HLF. Ackman not going to like us...

$YELP and $HLF are high volume breakouts, while $MDCO is getting a lot of call buying today.

Did you get another Buy signal? Or more pain tomorrow?


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Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon $SPY signal keeps its 100% hitrate intact yet again. $SPY at $208 from $206.6; current target price is $208.2, which isn't far off.  Probably an exit at end of day or tomorrow. The signal normally only happens a few times a year, yet this is our third one a few months into 2016.  Very interesting times.  So unreal every time we get this signal, but it never fails (knock on wood).

Intraday bottom signals coming back to life, buying a swath of ETFs $SPY, $IWM, $XLI, $SMH... If we stay here till close we might also get our once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 $SPY signal, which has a 100% hitrate and only triggers a few times a year (although it's already triggered 3 times this year!).