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Tech Trader


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1410 unique view(s)

February 26th, 2016

February 26th, 2016 10:26:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of its remaining intraday bottom trades from Tuesday.  Sold healthcare/biotech ETFs XBI and IBB this morning.  Total trade gain about 5% each.  Tech Trader's overall exposure back to about 50% cash and neutral now.

1432 unique view(s)

February 25th, 2016

February 25th, 2016 2:09:30 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of its intraday bottom trades on DIA and XLF as well.  SPY, DIA, XLF trades all about 2% gains.  Only healthcare/biotech ETFs XBI and IBB still being held now.


1436 unique view(s)

February 24th, 2016

February 24th, 2016 8:35:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back to life with intraday bottom signals on SPY, DIA, XLF, IBB, XBI just now after being about 60% cash and 10-20% net short for the last couple weeks on individual stocks.  Again intraday bottom signals are just first responders, so we could still keep going down, just that we're close enough to start scaling in.  The big one would be the once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY daily signal as usual.

SPY intraday bottom at $189.66.
February 24th, 2016 1:35:39 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of SPY at $193.33 for 2% in less than a day.  Market moves so extreme that Tech Trader is again scaling out in the same day.  Other ETFs still being held for now.
February 24th, 2016 12:12:07 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
All ETFs up over a percent since the bottom call. XBI and IBB up 3-4%.
February 24th, 2016 12:46:32 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Nice job!
February 24th, 2016 12:55:11 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yes agreed very impressive!
1406 unique view(s)

February 12th, 2016

February 12th, 2016 2:25:42 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of its SPY RSI2 buy from $185.20 to $186.60 for 0.6%.  Speaks to the environment that Tech Trader is not willing to hold longer.  On the next sharp move up or down, Tech Trader will continue range trading SPY.  Should be fun.

Without SPY, Tech Trader is actually now 25% net short (21% long by 46% short).  We haven't seen Tech Trader this net short since 2011 of the debt ceiling crisis.  The biggest sector exposures are 11% short technology, followed by 7% short utilities.  However, keep in mind that it is not actually short the index, just select names, and that it is still almost 60% in cash.



Tech Trader's overall portfolio still performing flat for the year, with S&P now down 8.5%.


February 12th, 2016 2:40:15 PM PST
Posted by scott.burrill | #
scott.burrill (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Excellent and thanks for the update.

Great weekend
February 12th, 2016 3:02:54 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yes well done!!
1342 unique view(s)

February 10th, 2016

February 10th, 2016 7:09:26 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY up almost a percent now in premarket.  Took an extra day but the once-in-a-blue-moon SPY signal playing out yet again.  It's funny how these trades always line up before some major event like the Fed.  Target price moving down slightly to $188 now from $190, which is still a sizable gain from its $185.20 entry on Monday.
1340 unique view(s)

February 8th, 2016

February 8th, 2016 12:52:47 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader remaining slightly up for the day even with the market down 2.5% now.  For the year, SPY is now down 10% while Tech Trader is up marginally but with virtually no drawdown.  The timing of Tech Trader going into 60% cash at the beginning of February was pretty much spot on, as it was at the end of December.  Now we are awaiting for Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon SPY bottom signals to kick in again (last ones in January and August).


February 8th, 2016 1:48:05 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And there it is... The coveted once-in-a-blue-moon SPY bottom signal back yet again at $185.20 with an exit target of $190.  It really speaks to the new environment we're in.  Tech Trader is basically now expecting a choppy range-bound market with the January low being the floor and is trading according to that.  The first bottom signal (labeled "BOT") in January was basically an initiation of sorts for Tech Trader to start looking for range-trading opportunities.  The last time we got frequent back-to-back SPY signals like this was in 2011/2012 and then 2008 before that.

February 8th, 2016 8:46:20 AM PST
Posted by scott.burrill | #
scott.burrill (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Thank you
1311 unique view(s)

February 2nd, 2016

February 2nd, 2016 2:14:15 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader is back to its Dec/January playbook of being almost 60% cash and not moving at all during days of market sell off.  Today SPY is down 1.6%.  Tech Trader is actually slightly up despite being net long (46% long by 22% short).  No real sector or thematic exposures.  Nice to lock in a slight gain for the year so far though while SPY starts sinking back towards the lows.


1333 unique view(s)

January 29th, 2016

January 29th, 2016 11:12:26 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal finally playing out today after an its entry at $186.5 last week.  SPY is currently at $192.40 now, a solid 3% up.  Just as we expected due to it being monthly capitulation (denoted by the red bottom label), it took longer than the usual few days for us to finally make a solid move up, but we eventually did.  Tech Trader is thinking about exiting at the end of today day (denoted by the orange trade in the chart).  We shall see if it does.

Note that exiting does not mean Tech Trader is bearish, just that it thinks the easy opportunity (buying at extreme lows) is over.  Historically, these monthly capitulation bottoms can work months to years, but it's hard to say if it'll be a smooth ride up or not.  If it does exit, exposures for Tech Trader overall will drop back to 57% long by 38% short, slightly bullish but with over 40% back in cash.  For the month and year, Tech Trader overall is slightly up while S&P500 is still down over 5%; most impressive I think is just the lack of sell off and volatility at all on Tech Trader's side.



Below is Tech Trader's overall trading for January 2016.

January 29th, 2016 2:05:11 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader's RSI2 SPY signal is out at about $193.3 at end of today.  Solid gain of about 3.8% from last week's entry at $186.5
January 29th, 2016 11:30:50 AM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Great signal!  Fantastic trade.  When I look at IWM on demark I'm leaning
towards this actually being able to put on a good move.
1393 unique view(s)

January 22nd, 2016

January 22nd, 2016 7:21:54 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY already up almost to $190 in premarket from Tech Trader's bottom call at $186.50 yesterday.  Never have enough confidence going into these.  Thankfully it's automated.  
January 22nd, 2016 8:55:09 AM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
fantastic!  I love it.  great signal.
1343 unique view(s)

January 21st, 2016

January 21st, 2016 1:58:20 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader finally calling a bottom to SPY at about $186.50 after a couple weeks of selling off.  This signal is a bit different from the last few once-in-a-blue-moon signals in that it's longer time horizon and not necessarily as punctual/v-shaped from the orange ones we've seen, at least by design.  The last time we had a red one that was longer time frame was March 2009.  The way to interpret this is that this might not be the exact bottom, but Tech Trader thinks it's close enough that it's willing to just get in and hold from here.



Here is a sample of the signal from 2009.


What's also interesting is that Tech Trader has been keeping down exposure both sides this whole way down, so we have no more than 20 positions.  Of course, the massive SPY buy now locks us in step a bit with the S&P500 but only after about 8% outperformance for the year.
January 21st, 2016 4:51:52 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
i like it!
1276 unique view(s)

January 19th, 2016

January 19th, 2016 2:16:53 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader now officially up slightly for the month while S&P500 is down about 8%.  Somewhat net long now but still 50% in cash.  Netflix (NFLX) also just jumped 10% after hours on earnings, so that will be a nice boost for tomorrow.


1295 unique view(s)

January 15th, 2016

January 15th, 2016 8:23:02 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader completely flat today with the market down over 2% after capturing the bounce yesterday. We're basically seeing Tech Trader sidestep down days while capturing the upside on up days.

January 15th, 2016 5:56:12 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY back below $190 and down 1.5% premarket.  Tech Trader dodged the sell off yet again by making that day trade.
1268 unique view(s)

January 14th, 2016

January 14th, 2016 8:34:57 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader starting to finally buy ETFs on intraday bottom signals with SPY at $188; these are like the first responders, could be early but starting to build a long position.  SPY, QQQ, and XLP ETFs bought so far.  I'm hoping the market actually goes lower for a bit so we can still get our much bigger RSI2 SPY signal that would really confirm a bottom.



Best part about this bounce is that both long and short positions are still working.  SPY and other ETFs off of the marketing timing signals are killing it as usual while shorts like ASNA, SKX, PLCE are also making just as much.

January 14th, 2016 1:02:31 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Such a crazy start to the year. The market moves are so extreme that Tech Trader is again getting out the same day with SPY at $193, the second time I've ever seen it day trade despite it not being explicitly coded.  Out of SPY and QQQ at 2.5% and 3.8% in less than a day.

1257 unique view(s)

January 13th, 2016

January 13th, 2016 1:26:45 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Pretty incredible day. Market down another 2% while Tech Trader is actually slightly up.  Tech Trader now solidly outperforming SPY by over 6%. Exposures actually net short now at 31% long by 35% short. Still waiting for the Tech Trader to call a bottom with its once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal but just awesome to be making money on the way down as well.


January 13th, 2016 11:40:29 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yet another name shorted by Tech Trader, this time in energy. Tech Trader now slightly net short at 31% long by 35% short.

Below is the options activity for TSO:
TSO 2/5/2016 90x Puts, 7650@$2.9
MV: $2.2M | $Not.: $22.4M | OI: 25 | 5.6% TotalOI
7.7% StockVolume | 45.2% OptionVolume
1172 unique view(s)

January 11th, 2016

January 11th, 2016 10:31:42 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader up half a percent today despite the market being down.  Exposures are exactly 31% long by 31% short, over 60% in cash.  Both sides are making money thanks to names like being long NFLX and short XPO and SGEN.  Still no bottom signals yet.



Year-to-date putting even more distance between Tech Trader and the market (TT now still flat while the market down over 6%).
January 11th, 2016 12:20:40 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Another financial name shorted based on options activity.  Pretty hilarious as it's basically wealth management, which I frequently hate on.  Tech Trader giving me a chance to express my hatred of these guys.

Signal on which it was shorted below:
FNGN 3/18/2016 30x Puts, 857@$2.2999
MV: $0.2M | $Not.: $1.1M | OI: 15 | 78.3% TotalOI
12.5% StockVolume | 85.4% OptionVolume
865 unique view(s)

January 8th, 2016

January 8th, 2016 2:12:52 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Another down day - 1% down on SPY - even though it opened with gap up; SPY is below $192 now, when it seemed strange enough that Tech Trader wasn't buying below $200.

Tech Trader again unaffected, flat for the day and continuing to remain 60% in cash, 38% long in mainly tech names, and 31% short in mainly consumer/financials.  Again, just very interesting that Tech Trader has yet to send any bottom signals on SPY or the sector ETFs; will be all the more exciting when it finally makes its first move, especially on the once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal.


864 unique view(s)

January 7th, 2016

January 7th, 2016 2:22:37 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader closing the day down slightly at about half a percent, but it's nothing compared to the 2.4% the rest of the market is down.  Exposures are still very tight and actually getting tighter by shorting financial names today rather than trying to buy this dip.  Current exposures are now 35% long by 31% short (60% in cash).

The rest of us here are on the edge of our seats waiting for when Tech Trader finally fires off its bottom signals and more importantly, the once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal to put that 60% cash to use.


January 7th, 2016 5:54:42 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY below $195 now in premarket after China again hitting circuit breakers for 7% down overnight.  Pretty amazing how Tech Trader basically positioned itself to dodge this and has chosen this one time to not buy the dip yet.  It's almost like Tech Trader has been waiting for this to happen in the market. Will be all the more amazing when Tech Trader finally spins around and starts buying.
January 7th, 2016 8:11:54 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader again actually up today while the market is down 1.5% thanks to strong selection.  Biggest gainer today is literally the short XPO from yesterday.
January 7th, 2016 12:02:00 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader signals both live and older Trendline signals starting to move from short consumer to short financials.  Names include CFG (shorting at close) and older trendline short signals on JPM, MCY, PB, SLF, etc.

Very interesting how we are seeing this sector rolling effect on the sell off.
805 unique view(s)

January 6th, 2016

January 6th, 2016 1:27:38 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader still refusing to buy this dip even after SPY got below $198 and is actually getting even more conservative by shorting DIS, SKX, and XPO at the close.  It'll be truly exciting when Tech Trader decides to buy SPY again on its once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 signal.  Total exposure is now 31% long by 17% short with most longs being in tech and most shorts being in consumer.

Tech Trader is slightly up today despite the market being down almost 2%, thanks to strong stock selection catching NFLX today up 8%.


Year-to-date, Tech Trader is essentially flat while SPY has sold off 3%.
January 6th, 2016 6:00:43 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY back below $200 with Tech Trader still over 60% in cash.  Looking forward to when we get bottom signals or the once in a blue moon SPY RSI2 signal.
January 6th, 2016 8:43:49 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader currently down only about 0.3% while the market market down over a percent.  Pretty hilarious that CNBC just said the only stock positive in the Dow is Walmart (WMT), mentioned yesterday as the long side of a pair trade (STNG short also working).
January 6th, 2016 11:07:33 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader positive now with market down 1% thanks to sudden 6% jump in NFLX.