pftq's Stocks and Investing

Trading Guide

Tech Trader

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919 unique view(s)

April 4th, 2016

April 4th, 2016 9:40:14 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$WWE, which had a bullish risk reversal on April 18x calls/puts last week, is in rumors to have a buyout offer.  This is the options activity from last week:
WWE 4/15/2016 18x Calls, 1655@$0.8999
MV: $0.1M | $Not.: $1.4M | OI: 1094 | 8.6% TotalOI
22.8% StockVolume | 27.3% OptionVolume
Leg: WWE 4/15/2016 18x Puts, 1655 on OI of 2516
WWE
949 unique view(s)

April 1st, 2016

April 1st, 2016 6:48:30 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$OMF, which had Apr 31x call buying, just sold 47% stake in SpringCastle. See if this is the news the buyer wanted.
OMF
April 1st, 2016 10:23:55 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$XLB bought on intraday bottom signal this morning at $44.27. $XLE probably correlated. Only one again, not the usual flurry of 3-5 signals.
April 1st, 2016 12:32:21 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Already out of $XLB at $45.  Again, intraday swings so extreme this year that Tech Trader is daytrading these moves.
925 unique view(s)

March 31st, 2016

March 31st, 2016 1:13:06 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Activity in individual stocks picking up. $BSX, $EGRX, $MDVN all bought this week. $WUBA, $FNGN, $KBWB shorted.  $OMF rebought this month after already trading it last month.

Overall positioning looks like a continuation of the long Brazil/oil theme but now also with healthcare while selectively buying and shorting financial names.  It seems like there's a lot of anticipation on catalysts coming up on many of these names ranging from healthcare events to potential acquisitions on other names.


March 31st, 2016 12:23:20 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Market slightly down but $OMF up almost 4% today. Still holding due to April call buying.
March 31st, 2016 12:47:22 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Short $KBWB on $2.4M bearish risk reversal for May. Interesting as pair trade against long $OMF; both bank related.

KBWB 6/17/2016 33x Puts, 18000@$1.35
MV: $2.4M | $Not.: $28.1M | OI: 0 | 9,424.1% TotalOI
1,227.9% StockVolume | 50.0% OptionVolume
Leg: KBWB 6/17/2016 33x Calls, 18000 on OI of 0
958 unique view(s)

March 30th, 2016

March 30th, 2016 8:40:40 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Brazil trade working out especially well today after Fed again. Names like $PBR up above $6 now from Tech Trader's entry around $5.
PBR
March 30th, 2016 12:56:39 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
$WUBA getting shorted on about $1M in May put buying.  Some of you follow China markets closely, so I thought this would be of interest.

WUBA 5/20/2016 55x Puts, 2042@$3.5
MV: $0.7M | $Not.: $4.8M | OI: 47 | 7.9% TotalOI
14.3% StockVolume | 40.1% OptionVolume
1014 unique view(s)

March 24th, 2016

March 24th, 2016 7:26:52 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming alive again w/ an intraday bottom on $XLK at $43.35.  Only one so far - like first shots fired to test the waters.


More interestingly, Tech Trader's 100% hitrate once-in-a-blue-moon SPY buy signal might trigger today as well.  All of us here are watching excitingly to see if we'll get yet another signal this year only 3 months into the year, which is very unusual and points to just how different the current market is from the last few years.
March 24th, 2016 1:26:28 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Looks like that $XLK signal was enough for the market to rally back to the close.  Little disappointing, but we'll see if the market gives us a second chance to buy next week.
1105 unique view(s)

March 18th, 2016

March 18th, 2016 6:39:37 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
The long Brazil and $AMD themes continuing strongly from yesterday.  Last one we're waiting on is $INSY (marijuana) with its conference today.
AMD
March 18th, 2016 6:48:01 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Funny but not serious note is $VRX (Valeant) has a short-term buy on an older RSI strategy at $29.5 with a target price of $45; not traded but interesting to watch, as that strategy has a 80% hitrate on all its signals.

March 18th, 2016 8:17:25 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Ton of bullish trendline breaks this week. This just from today: $ASNA $DWA $FLT $FIVE $HR $L $NAVI $NGL $RDN $SFM $SMLP $SWFT $TGI $TSLA $UNP

These from past few days: $APD $BAM $BKE $CBI $CBL $CCJ $CPA $D $D $DKS $DOV $DYN $E $ENLC $EPE $EQM $EQM $EQT $FCE-A $FLEX $GGP $GPK $HES $HPP $IBN $KT $KYN $LBTYA $LPI $LPT $LSTR $MAC $NFG $NS $OPK $PH $RRD $SCCO $SHOO $SNE $SRE $SRE $STLD $SU $TSL $TU $UNF $UNFI $UNFI $UPS $WBC $WPC $WYN $XLE $XPO

Normally very bullish when you get huge clusters like this.  Again, older strategy not traded but good to monitor.

March 18th, 2016 9:08:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And there goes $INSY, just jumped 6% to $18 and still going.
March 18th, 2016 11:01:22 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader back into $OMF on the same April call buying, this time at $31 strike.  Seems like someone is really betting on it going above $30 by next month.  Funny stock to watch because it always has 10% up days after it pulls back.
OMF 4/15/2016 31x Calls, 5000@$1.0499
MV: $0.5M | $Not.: $5.0M | OI: 0 | 19.9% TotalOI
24.3% StockVolume | 46.6% OptionVolume
1072 unique view(s)

March 17th, 2016

March 17th, 2016 6:51:43 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Brazil theme finally playing out in size after Fed, with names like PBR, ITUB, and EWZ up 8-10% a piece today.  AMD also up 5% on talks about Intel licensing their GPU patents.  Last theme to watch would be the marijuana one with INSY, which is presenting at a conference tomorrow.
1036 unique view(s)

March 16th, 2016

March 16th, 2016 8:20:37 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Been a rather uneventful couple of months, but it looks like Tech Trader is finally building a couple themes here, first with Brazil (note that it cut ITUB and RIO though), then marijuana (INSY), and now potentially virtual reality with AMD.  These are longer medium term plays, so we'll see how these play out.

1034 unique view(s)

March 14th, 2016

March 14th, 2016 10:33:37 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Marijuana stocks breaking out today, mainly following GWPH which jumped over 100%.  Tech Trader in particular holding INSY from last week based on call buying around $16; INSY has about 80% short interest and 23 days to cover.
1107 unique view(s)

March 11th, 2016

March 11th, 2016 11:03:03 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader adding to its long Brazil theme with BBVA today.
1116 unique view(s)

March 10th, 2016

March 10th, 2016 2:46:45 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Much of the market flat today after all the whipsaw, but IHUB and PBR from a couple days ago are up about 5% a piece.  Not really sure why, but interesting to watch.
1228 unique view(s)

March 8th, 2016

March 8th, 2016 1:08:40 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Starting to finally see some shakiness in the market.  The XLU long and SMH short call from last week is starting to play out pretty well now.

Some other interesting observations are that Brazillian names in particular are being picked up on the long side.  Tech Trader overall is still net short though.


1398 unique view(s)

March 5th, 2016

March 5th, 2016 8:58:18 AM PST
Posted by dipsea | #
dipsea (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Excellent data worth considering. Thanks
1397 unique view(s)

March 4th, 2016

March 4th, 2016 9:05:23 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
XLU up over a percent since the bottom call a couple days ago, which is just weird since it's the opposite of what you'd expect with how rates are moving on the stronger than expected job numbers, but we'll take what we can get.

Tech Trader still net short (50% cash, 20% long, 50% short)  but pretty much holding flat in performance despite the market rally.  It's basically choosing to sidestep the rally out of caution.  Some older strategies that are not traded live but we still monitor are also flagging extremely bearish, namely our RSI2 stocks which very rarely is over 100% short is currently 130% short and continuing to add.  Main takeaway is the market is coming off very overbought and risk is high to the downside.

Below is the current exposure of the older RSI2 stocks strategy; it's not traded live for the obvious volatility in performance, but the peak exposure periods have a hitrate of 90% with those periods only happening a couple times a year.
March 4th, 2016 1:10:49 PM PST
Posted by buck.andrews | #
buck.andrews (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Thanks for the explanation. This helps me to better understand tech trader.
1391 unique view(s)

March 2nd, 2016

March 2nd, 2016 8:54:19 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
CS and OMF up about 2-3% each.  Not sure why; we're watching closely just to see what happens, as often times these can be frontrunning some kind of news.

Tech Trader overall getting net short again though both by shorting more and getting out of existing long positions.  It is also getting more defensive with what it has left over in long names. SMH just got shorted and XLU is being bought on intraday bottom, both of which are defensive signs.


1393 unique view(s)

March 1st, 2016

March 1st, 2016 11:38:39 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Some really interesting activity happening in the finance sector just now.  Someone coming into CS (Credit Suisse) with heavy call buying at what appears to be recession lows.  OMF, a name with call buying earlier last month, also just started spiking up (literally going straight up on the 1 min chart).

1417 unique view(s)

February 26th, 2016

February 26th, 2016 10:26:04 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of its remaining intraday bottom trades from Tuesday.  Sold healthcare/biotech ETFs XBI and IBB this morning.  Total trade gain about 5% each.  Tech Trader's overall exposure back to about 50% cash and neutral now.

1442 unique view(s)

February 25th, 2016

February 25th, 2016 2:09:30 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of its intraday bottom trades on DIA and XLF as well.  SPY, DIA, XLF trades all about 2% gains.  Only healthcare/biotech ETFs XBI and IBB still being held now.


1446 unique view(s)

February 24th, 2016

February 24th, 2016 8:35:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader coming back to life with intraday bottom signals on SPY, DIA, XLF, IBB, XBI just now after being about 60% cash and 10-20% net short for the last couple weeks on individual stocks.  Again intraday bottom signals are just first responders, so we could still keep going down, just that we're close enough to start scaling in.  The big one would be the once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY daily signal as usual.

SPY intraday bottom at $189.66.
February 24th, 2016 1:35:39 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of SPY at $193.33 for 2% in less than a day.  Market moves so extreme that Tech Trader is again scaling out in the same day.  Other ETFs still being held for now.
February 24th, 2016 12:12:07 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
All ETFs up over a percent since the bottom call. XBI and IBB up 3-4%.
February 24th, 2016 12:46:32 PM PST
Posted by zonayev | #
zonayev (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Nice job!
February 24th, 2016 12:55:11 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yes agreed very impressive!
1414 unique view(s)

February 12th, 2016

February 12th, 2016 2:25:42 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader out of its SPY RSI2 buy from $185.20 to $186.60 for 0.6%.  Speaks to the environment that Tech Trader is not willing to hold longer.  On the next sharp move up or down, Tech Trader will continue range trading SPY.  Should be fun.

Without SPY, Tech Trader is actually now 25% net short (21% long by 46% short).  We haven't seen Tech Trader this net short since 2011 of the debt ceiling crisis.  The biggest sector exposures are 11% short technology, followed by 7% short utilities.  However, keep in mind that it is not actually short the index, just select names, and that it is still almost 60% in cash.



Tech Trader's overall portfolio still performing flat for the year, with S&P now down 8.5%.


February 12th, 2016 2:40:15 PM PST
Posted by scott.burrill | #
scott.burrill (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Excellent and thanks for the update.

Great weekend
February 12th, 2016 3:02:54 PM PST
Posted by twgarry | #
twgarry (Guest) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Yes well done!!
1348 unique view(s)

February 10th, 2016

February 10th, 2016 7:09:26 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
SPY up almost a percent now in premarket.  Took an extra day but the once-in-a-blue-moon SPY signal playing out yet again.  It's funny how these trades always line up before some major event like the Fed.  Target price moving down slightly to $188 now from $190, which is still a sizable gain from its $185.20 entry on Monday.
1348 unique view(s)

February 8th, 2016

February 8th, 2016 12:52:47 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
Tech Trader remaining slightly up for the day even with the market down 2.5% now.  For the year, SPY is now down 10% while Tech Trader is up marginally but with virtually no drawdown.  The timing of Tech Trader going into 60% cash at the beginning of February was pretty much spot on, as it was at the end of December.  Now we are awaiting for Tech Trader's once-in-a-blue-moon SPY bottom signals to kick in again (last ones in January and August).


February 8th, 2016 1:48:05 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says on The Tech Trader Wall...
And there it is... The coveted once-in-a-blue-moon SPY bottom signal back yet again at $185.20 with an exit target of $190.  It really speaks to the new environment we're in.  Tech Trader is basically now expecting a choppy range-bound market with the January low being the floor and is trading according to that.  The first bottom signal (labeled "BOT") in January was basically an initiation of sorts for Tech Trader to start looking for range-trading opportunities.  The last time we got frequent back-to-back SPY signals like this was in 2011/2012 and then 2008 before that.