More bottom picking, this time in $FE (utility/energy) based on options call activity for October.

FE 10/21/2016 34x Calls, 11050@$0.8
MV: $0.9M | $Not.: $14.9M | OI: 5121 | 18.5% TotalOI
21.6% StockVolume | 95.8% OptionVolume

Also added $HAIN as another potential breakout.

$YELP up an additional 5% after hours coincidentally.

Do you see any big put spread trades in XLP over past few weeks? Thanks!

Sent from my iPhone

>

None that we can see are notable.

Thanks!

Sent from my iPhone

>

$SYMC up about 5% after hours on beat. Initial reports were that it missed; hence why we trade price and not news.

I am the opposite. Short Tech, health care and consumer. Betting on Financials, industrials, and Utilities. Good luck!


Sent from my iPhone

>

Guys,
Some interesting fact for you. The best performing market neutral factor this year is 20-day RSI. The factor buys bottom 200 stocks in Russell 1000 ( oversold) and shorts top 200 most overbought stocks as determined by their 20-day RSI, rebalanced each month end. Over past 7 months the factor is up almost 17%. This is incredible performance. Basically traders market where fundamentals don't matter. Quants are trading baskets back and fourth. Until uncertainty is gone, it might be the best strategy for the rat of the year.
 

Sent from my iPhone

>

great job!

I think TLT goes lower. ECB is next week and BOJ is end of the month.
Central banks are back in a driving seat.

Gold is less certain cause selling pressure on Treasuries is weakening USD
that marginally help Gold. Gold is down over 1% now but Gold miners  are
up. This can't continue unless yields fall back down.

Long $HFC energy name after someone just bought almost $2M in August calls.

HFC 8/19/2016 24x Calls, 12267@$1.5
MV: $1.8M | $Not.: $15.3M | OI: 349 | 17.5% TotalOI
28.6% StockVolume | 37.4% OptionVolume

Another short with $XHB after put buying for again August.
XHB 8/19/2016 34x Puts, 14375@$0.4499
MV: $0.6M | $Not.: $15.4M | OI: 80 | 13.5% TotalOI
37.2% StockVolume | 95.3% OptionVolume

Nice bounce today! Good job! Equities are not fully risk off (dollar is weak) but TLT is working. Weak Oil is def helping your trade. Let me know when you exit:)


Sent from my iPhone

>

Final short being added for the day in $TXMD.

Tech Trader buying $TLT on pullback. Reminds me of when it was long both stock and dollar index and somehow both worked out.

Adding shorts in $KNL, $CVLT on put activity while taking gains in $AMBA and $NVDA.

My model is short TLT and GLD. But good luck with your trade. Your hope that risk aversion comes back.


Sent from my iPhone

>

Note that today Utilities finally started to sell off after holding up well for some time. Higher yields would likely dislocate Utilities the most since they are overbought, have weak fundamentals and pay relatively low dividend ( based on past history).


Sent from my iPhone

>

Thanks. Our $TLT trade should be short term just for a bounce.  We are still about 70% long by 25% short excluding that.

$SPY at new highs despite Brexit. Funny part is we mis-interpreted TT's long bet to be stay, but it didn't matter as it ended up outperforming anyway.

The rebound from June 27th bottom is almost done. It peaks around 2-3 weeks from the bottom. I think the worst case scenario is equity and bond simultaneous sell off (risk parity unwind). Probably will be in September, while for now I like EM and beta.


Sent from my iPhone

>

charset=utf-8

Thanks!  These post and Tech trader are really interesting!

>

$3M in $KRE Sept 39x calls just got bought. Another repeat name; seems like there are a lot of favorites this year.

$KRE 9/16/2016 39x Calls, 24580@$1.1499
MV: $2.8M | $Not.: $36.6M | OI: 10020 | 10.5% TotalOI
71.1% StockVolume | 99.1% OptionVolume