And we're in!
And I won't be able to sleep at all I guess (it's midnight for market hours here).

SPY RSI2 ("bluemoon") signal is back again (pending end-of-day).  So much happening already only two weeks into the month.  Hope this holds into close.  Go figure it happens yet *again* when one of us is on a flight (me to Japan).  Literally, if you go back on every SPY signal, that has been the day of or after one of us was on flight.

Options Bets skyrocketing again, with HZNP up another 10%.  Have one thorn in our side from AEGR but largely offset by other gains.  

Overall a strong month so far relative to SPY selling off and accelerating that downtrend.  Our beta is now -.18 despite being 71% net long (132% long by 61% short).

Options-based positions bringing in a lot of idiosyncratic alpha today from names like HZNP (25% up today, bought from call activity a few weeks ago), ENDP (6%), and a few others.  Tech Trader is slowly adding intraday bottom positions in XLU and other ETFs but very slowly (1 today, 1 a few days ago, etc).  Very nice to be holding steady for the first week of the month while SPY declines gradually.  Our beta since launch MTD is 0.2.

The options data feeding into Tech Trader is putting it on steroids.  Just now, AHS is up 15% afterhours on earnings beat.  Had pretty sizable gains this week on being long MDCO into earnings and short TASR into earnings as well.

Overall Tech Trader is ramping up exposures on both long and short side (120% long by 70% short now) after a very quiet August-October.  There is no particular sizable sector bet, with all sectors being under 10% of the total exposures.  The P&L chart itself looks like a cup-and-handle formation.





Note the performance chart looks a little different from prior posts because I've moved the options bets strategy back in (other charts had it discontinued April onwards).

Options-based names are neutral exposure (equal # long and short names) but up over 1.7% today during the market rally, both long and short sides.


The rest of the portfolio also doing great as usual, up 0.5%, with XLP having just gotten an intraday bottom.


XLP intraday:

YRCW! First big win for Tech Trader with options orderflow information now turned back on.  Up 20% today with Tech Trader having bought earlier this week.  The call activity TT picked up a couple days ago was huge:
YRCW 12/18/2015 15x Calls, 10000@$1.8099 ($1.8M in calls)



Options-based trades from Tech Trader now up 3% as a portfolio since the beginning of the week.

Tech Trader coming back to life here, putting on more names both long and short.  Today up over 1% with the market slightly down.


Finally got the options data feed plugged back into TT as well, and that's just spinning in new trades like crazy the last couple days.  The options-based trades alone added 1% over the last couple days.

Intraday bottom signals up across the board as usual.  IBB and XBI up 4%, XLV up 1%.  Sold out of 1-month options at 30-40% each.

Intraday bottoms flagging on all the healthcare ETFs XLV, XBI, IBB... Calls are super expensive though.  Tech Trader only bought a few way out in Dec/Jan.

Tech Trader's short bet on TASR finally playing out after a few months.  Overall Tech Trader's exposure still a very tight 60% long by 30% short.  Very boring month so far. 

Up today about half a percent while market churns sideways.

Out of XLF at 0.7%, month-out calls at 20%.
Out of XLV at 0.7%, month-out calls at 8%.

Tech Trader coming back to life again after a boring few weeks. XLF and XLV intraday bottom signals fired, like first responders to a scene.

Slow way to end the quarter.  Tech Trader remaining very tight at 52% long by 22% short and selling out of its intraday bottom ETF positions on today's bounce.  Overall Tech Trader is up about 20% for the year while SPY is down 5%.

Up today despite market being down a percent and Tech Trader being 60% long vs 25% short still.  Thanks to shorts like GLNG and ISIS.


Can't wait till we get another daily bottom.  So ready for it.

Looking forward to seeing this sell off pick up and hopefully getting yet another rare SPY RSI2 signal.

That was probably the easiest flip in a while.  After making a killing on the SPY short, the very next trading day has Tech Trader now making on the long side instead with the ETFs (XLK, XLB, DIA); also added IBB at pretty much the low of the day.  The market has been chopping between negative and positive all day, but Tech Trader's held a steady 50bps up all day regardless of the market movement.  Ironically the biggest winner today is its short on ISIS (the stock is down 8%).


What's most impressive is how quickly it flipped from neutral to net short to now net long in just the past week, each time getting the exact day the market turns, and it is now just grinding higher on each swing the market makes.  This is after being "asleep" for most of September with no signals.  SPY again shown in red for comparison.

Tech Trader covered its RSI2 SPY trade today, out at $195.27 after shorting at about $200 on Wednesday, the exact top of the week (by closing price).  Equity netted 2%.  Weekly 200x puts made 95.3% from $2.32 to $4.53.  Month-out 200x puts made 45.5% from $4.20 to $6.11.

The once-in-a-blue-moon RSI2 SPY signal's 100% hitrate since 2008 track record remains intact.  As usual, the signal occurred while we were traveling and right before a major catalyst event (the Fed), but also as usual, the outcome of the actual event didn't matter.


Tech Trader is also now rotating into smaller intraday bottom-scalping long ETF positions (currently DIA, XLK, and XLB).  Exposure flipped in one day from 55% short by 40% long to now 65% long by 23% short.  Portfolio-level P&L finally stopped flat-lining and is going to new highs.  SPY again shown for comparison.


The hybrid equity+options portfolio that replaces ETF-timing trades with month-out options is up 6.5% for September so far with .5% drawdown.  Will be interesting to see if it can augment returns of the base strategies without increasing risk significantly, but we'll see with time.  Again, this is all fully automated.

CVC up 16% on acquisition.  No matter what happens today with the Fed, Tech Trader is already up almost a percent and at new highs for the year.

Tech Trader continuing to churn higher - currently at new highs for the year now.  SPY (with divs) now included in the same chart for comparison.


What's more interesting are the abandoned strategies that I monitor in a separate book.  They're catching up to the official portfolio now.  The older strategies are actually net short now for the first time since July, which is pretty scary given that Fed is tomorrow.  It's also planning to add another 50 potential names or so on the short side off of SPY's little rally today due to being overbought near resistance, with heavy-weight ETF positions among them.

lol this will change once we start traveling next week. Market goes nuts as soon as our backs are turned.

Pretty hilariously awesome day.  SPY opens up a percent before selling off and ending up down a percent.  Tech Trader opens flat as usual but then actually gains half a percent as the market sells off, despite being net long at 30% long x 20% short.  As usual, the most exciting days happen when one of us is out traveling (me this time); had the foresight this time to blindly throw on a few SPY weekly 201 puts before boarding, which are already up 100%.  Getting pretty good at mastering this Fate and Irony stuff.  Can't wait to see what happens when all 3 of us are out traveling on Fed Day.


Meanwhile SPY... flopping like a dead fish as usual these past weeks.